Elon Musk: What would a Trump victory mean for him?

He donates enormous sums to Donald Trump’s campaign and gives away millions to undecided voters: Hardly anyone fights as doggedly for a Republican victory as Tesla boss Elon Musk. The billionaire has been campaigning for Trump for months and has promised a bleak future if Kamala Harris wins the election. For Musk, it seems there is only one option: the former president must come back to power. Whatever the cost!

But why?

Firstly, unsurprisingly, it’s about money. For a lot of money. And about expanding power and influence. But that’s just one side of the coin. Musk’s numerous companies have repeatedly worked past the authorities in recent years and have thus accumulated an astonishing amount of investigations. These could gradually become a huge problem, because the wheels of justice grind slowly, but they grind. More on that later.

Elon Musk depends on the government – and the government of Musk

To understand how deeply Musk and his companies are already entangled with the American government, it is worth taking a look at the current reporting by “”. As part of a comprehensive research, court records, documents from authorities and data on government orders were examined.

The search revealed: Last year alone, Musk’s company was awarded around 100 contracts with 17 federal agencies, the total volume of which was around three billion US dollars. In total, according to the New York Times, government payments over the past ten years amounted to $15.4 billion. SpaceX accounted for the lion’s share, and Tesla reportedly received comparatively little support.

In Musk’s eyes, the coming election could decide what happens next with government orders and subsidies. Donald Trump is unlikely to make any cuts after Musk’s energetic support during the election campaign. However, what would happen under a Harris-Walz government is much more difficult to predict. However, with his statement “If Trump loses, I’ll be hurt,” Musk probably exaggerated greatly. Kamala Harris cannot and will not simply put her collaboration with SpaceX on hold – both NASA and the Department of Defense rely on the company’s technology and services.

A dangerous pile of files

However, things could become more uncomfortable for Musk under a Democratic government. Because the downside of his success are the countless disputes with US authorities already mentioned. Because Musk often ignores rules and laws in the interests of rapid progress, he has accumulated a large number of lawsuits and investigations against himself and his companies in recent years.

For example, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is investigating SpaceX, the Federal Highway and Vehicle Safety Administration (NHTSA) has been taking a closer look at Tesla for months, and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been dealing with the entrepreneur’s tweets and statements for years.

There are also investigations by the Labor Law Authority (NLRB) into alleged anti-union tweets, a lawsuit from the Department of Transportation into possibly illegal transport of dangerous pathogens by Neuralink, and a lawsuit from the Department of Justice alleging discrimination.

Each procedure in itself is a threat to the companies concerned. Put all the investigations and regulatory battles together, and Musk’s empire could be seriously shaken.

Unless Trump wins the White House again.

At least that’s what the two agreed, Musk would then be head of a newly formed “Commission for Government Efficiency”. As things currently stand, this would have the authority to recommend far-reaching cuts to federal agencies and changes to federal regulations. That would be the jackpot for Musk. If he were to head such a powerful commission, he would also have control over those authorities that put pressure on his companies.

Musk’s instructions would not be legally binding. But if the authorities have to fear that their budgets will be cut if Musk finds them annoying, this would create a huge conflict of interest – to Musk’s advantage. At least in the USA it would be expected that many proceedings would come to nothing.

The tech CEO has already mastered the game of getting the judiciary on his side: Musk recently adjusted X’s terms of use and thereby changed the court responsible for the platform. X, formerly Twitter, now only litigates before the US District Court for the Northern District of Texas or the state courts in Tarrant County (Texas, USA). There is calculation behind this, because as “” reports, the presiding judge Reed O’Connor is a Tesla shareholder. It is true that he has to make decisions independently of his economic interests. But whether that will always be the case is another matter. Musk will know this.

Competition? What competition?

In addition to this chance to finally clear the air about all procedures surrounding his companies, the control of the “Commission for Government Efficiency” would perhaps open another door: It cannot be ruled out that Musk will indirectly influence other government orders could, for example, cancel contracts with competitors, such as Boeing and the Starliner.

All under the guise of a more efficient government spending policy. And who would blame him? Few people will disagree with anyone who demonstrably saves taxpayers money. At least as long as he follows the rules.

It is unclear what an appointment to head a government commission would mean for Musk’s previous positions. It is unlikely that as a member of the government he would be able to remain CEO of many companies – from a legal perspective alone, but certainly also for time reasons.

As recently as August, Trump said in one: “He wants to get involved. Look, he runs big companies and all that, so he can’t really – I don’t think he could be in the Cabinet. I would definitely put him in the Cabinet but I don’t know how he could do that with all the things he has going on.” Only a little later, Trump announced that he wanted to appoint Musk to lead the new commission. At the moment, only Trump and he know how Musk wants to achieve this.