North Korea’s soldiers in Russia: will the country become a party to the war?

Will soldiers from North Korea also fight alongside the Russian military against Ukraine in the future? According to the USA and South Korea, Pyongyang’s first troops are already in Russia. There is a high level of alarm at the tour in Kyiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warns of a new level of escalation as North Koreans gain experience in modern warfare. Some questions and answers about the situation:

Why might Russia use North Korean soldiers in the Ukraine war?

So far, Moscow and Pyongyang have denied that North Korean soldiers are being prepared for a military mission in Ukraine or in the Russian border region of Kursk. But Russia and North Korea have agreed to provide mutual military assistance if either is attacked by another state. Because Ukraine invaded the Kursk border region at the beginning of August and occupied dozens of towns there, Moscow could choose this option.

This Thursday, the treaty on the all-encompassing strategic partnership between the two countries is to be ratified in the Duma, the Russian parliament. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova emphasized that the military cooperation between the two countries did not violate any laws.

Moscow media have also reported on North Koreans at the Russian military training area Sergeyevka on the border with China and North Korea. Experts in Moscow are also quoted as saying that although combat operations are possible, the impact on the war is limited. They believe that Russia is only creating further complications. The international loss of face for Russia would also be important if it were to admit weakness if it had to resort to foreign troops in war out of necessity.

What would North Korea get out of it?

The North Korean military may be particularly interested in gaining direct combat experience in a modern large-scale war with massive use of drones and long-range missiles. According to Ukrainian information, North Korean experts have been active in the occupied eastern Ukrainian territory for a long time, among other things in connection with alleged North Korean missile technology. At the beginning of October, several North Koreans were said to have been killed in a Ukrainian missile strike.

North Korea, which the USA is already accusing of supplying ammunition and weapons to Russia, could tie Moscow more closely to itself through further military aid and, above all, prepare for a possible return in the future. Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov claimed in an interview with the British “The Economist” that in addition to money, North Korea is interested in evading sanctions and obtaining Russian technologies for tactical nuclear weapons and submarine missile systems.

What does this mean for Ukraine?

According to the South Korean secret service, North Korea is said to have already sent a total of 3,000 soldiers to Russia, and by the end of December there will be a total of 10,000. Given the large Russian contingent, the number is unlikely to be significant. Russia is currently said to have 600,000 to 700,000 soldiers deployed in combat in Ukraine and the Kursk border region. However, a North Korean intervention army of, for example, 100,000 men or more could cause the front, which is already only being held with difficulty by the Ukrainians, to collapse.

For Kiev, this danger provides additional arguments to demand similar steps from its Western allies. At least a proposal already put forward by French President Emmanuel Macron to station Western troops along the Belarusian border, for example, in order to relocate Ukrainian units that become available to the Eastern Front, should get new impetus.

Would North Korea become a party to the war if its soldiers were deployed?

According to international law expert Claus Kreß, in order to answer this question clearly with yes, two conditions would have to be met: Firstly, the soldiers would have to act under North Korean command and secondly, they would have to “take direct part in hostilities with Ukraine”, for example by shooting themselves, he said Professor of international law at the University of Cologne.

“If North Korean soldiers under North Korean command take direct part in hostilities with Ukraine, North Korea would thereby become a party to an international armed conflict with Ukraine,” explained Kreß. Whether they do this from Russian or Ukrainian soil is irrelevant.

How does the West react?

The West would see North Korean soldiers’ intervention in the war as a significant escalation with repercussions beyond Ukraine. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin warned of a “very, very serious problem” with consequences not only for Europe, but also for the already tense situation in the Indo-Pacific. But he didn’t get any more specific. The Foreign Office in Berlin also found clear words: “North Korea’s support of the Russian war of aggression also directly threatens Germany’s security and the European peace order.”

The ministry summoned the North Korean charge d’affaires to express concern about a troop deployment. The Western states are now trying to exert diplomatic pressure to persuade North Korea to refrain from military intervention. The German ambassador Alexander Graf Lambsdorff also protested against this development in the Russian Foreign Ministry.

What do the NATO states do if North Korea still gets serious?

This is unclear and resources are limited. Numerous sanctions have already been imposed in the past because of North Korea’s pursuit of nuclear weapons and its support for Russia’s war of aggression. A significant tightening is hardly possible anymore. The option would then remain to significantly expand military support for Ukraine in return.

A NATO decision to send combat troops, however, is currently considered impossible because alliance members such as Germany and the USA fear that this could trigger a third world war. Ukrainian President Zelenskyj openly addressed this scenario in a press conference in Brussels last week. “This is the first step towards a world war,” he said of possible North Korean intervention.