Greens: Cem Özdemir, one candidacy and three problems

One thing can be said without exaggeration: In the year after next, an era will come to an end in Baden-Württemberg: Winfried Kretschmann will no longer run for the office of Prime Minister. He will have been the father of the country for 15 years and will have been successfully re-elected twice. For his party, the Greens, he became its first prime minister in 2011 – to this day the 76-year-old remains the only one.

It was widely expected that Cem Özdemir would want to succeed him. It has been clear since this Friday: the current Federal Minister of Agriculture will lead the Baden-Württemberg Greens in the 2026 state elections. In a video on Instagram, the 58-year-old unpacks a package and pulls out a T-shirt. The inscription: “Cem 2Ö26”. Ö like Özdemir – “Now we can get started,” he says to the camera in Swabian.

For many Greens, the minister is the ideal choice for successor in Baden-Württemberg: The former party leader is experienced, is considered a very pragmatic Green, like Kretschmann – and is popular in Baden-Württemberg: In the 2021 federal election, Özdemir won his constituency in Stuttgart with 40 percent of votes.

“This will be Cem’s biggest challenge”

If the plan works, Özdemir would have achieved something significant: he would be the first guest worker child in the office. His parents came to Germany in the 1960s and met in Bad Urach. Özdemir repeatedly describes himself as an “Anatolian Swabian”.

However, it is all a foregone conclusion that Özdemir can defend the Prime Minister’s office for the Greens. “This will be Cem’s biggest challenge,” writes Reinhard Bütikofer, former leader of the Green Party, on Twitter.

Özdemir faces three huge problems. The starting point today is different, the mood has changed: in the 2021 state election, Kretschmann received a record 32.6 percent of the vote. But now the Greens are only at 18 percent in the polls. This is still significantly better than the national trend, but in Baden-Württemberg the Greens have now also been overtaken by the CDU: the current junior partner in Stuttgart is clearly ahead with 34 percent.

Is a minister in the unpopular traffic light

The “traffic light factor” is likely to play a large part in this. The traffic light is more unpopular than any coalition before it; no one wants it. When asked which coalition should govern the country, zero percent of respondents in a survey in mid-September named the traffic light. The problem for Özdemir: As a minister, he is a prominent representative of this coalition.

Of course, he repeatedly tried to distance himself, for example during the farmers’ protests at the beginning of the year. The Minister of Agriculture notes that some of the cuts in subsidies for farmers have been weakened or withdrawn. But will it be received that way? Özdemir and the Baden-Württemberg Greens are likely to hope that the memory of the traffic lights will have faded somewhat for some Baden-Württemberg residents in 2026.

It is still unclear whether Özdemir can continue to benefit from the “Kretschmann effect”. The fact that Kretschmann became Prime Minister in Baden-Württemberg in 2011, until then the home state of the CDU, had a lot to do with the heated atmosphere surrounding the major Stuttgart 21 project and the unfortunate actions of the then CDU Prime Minister, Stefan Mappus.

Above all, shortly before the vote, there was a catastrophe in Japan that shocked the world: a tsunami triggered core meltdowns in several reactor blocks in Fukushima. The feeling that the Greens might have been right with their vehement warnings about nuclear power helped the party at the ballot box.

Does the “Kretschmann effect” also exist for Cem Özdemir?

Kretschmann moved into the Villa Reitzenstein, the seat of government in Stuttgart – and was confirmed in office twice. But his re-election may have had less to do with the fact that he is a Green. But rather with his personality. The former teacher often seems like a conservative in the body of a Green politician. There is also repeated criticism within our own party that green politics is sometimes falling by the wayside: in Baden-Württemberg, for example, there are even fewer wind turbines than in Bavaria – and that under a long-standing green state father.

Özdemir is likely to have the best chances by following the Kretschmann line. It means a lot to him “that Winfried Kretschmann wholeheartedly supports my decision,” writes Özdemir in a personal statement about his candidacy on a newly created website. “For both of us, the well-being of the country always comes first.” There are definitely similarities there too. Both are assigned to the extreme Realo wing of the Greens, are considered to be more business-friendly and sometimes go against the party line.

Both Kretschmann and Özdemir are calling for tightening up on the issue of migration, which is important to many citizens. Özdemir recently criticized in a guest article in the “FAZ” that his daughter in Berlin was often “uncomfortably stared at or sexualized by men with a migrant background.” The contribution caused anger among some Greens, especially from the left wing. Pragmatists like Kretschmann and Özdemir repeatedly call on their party to be more clear and tough on the issue.

But it seems uncertain whether the similarities in content will be enough for Özdemir to take office as Kretschmann’s quasi-natural successor. According to a survey, 55 percent of people in Baden-Württemberg think it is unlikely that Özdemir will become the next prime minister. Only 23 percent believed he could win the election.

What is certain is that the Greens have experienced a lot of rejection since they took part in government in the federal government, for some they have literally become enemy number 1. In February, the Greens had to cancel an event for political Ash Wednesday in Biberach, Baden-Württemberg – because of aggressive protests in front of the hall.

So far the party has done little to counter this. For Özdemir, it will therefore also be important to see how his party reorganizes itself after the current dual leadership withdraws from the party leadership. How she goes into the federal election campaign – and how she will perform there. For Özdemir, this could be a good or a bad signal: a few months later, in the spring of 2026, the Baden-Württemberg top candidate will get down to business.