Selydove falls – Russians continue to advance in Donbass

analysis

Free Ukraine has lost another city in Donbass. Selydove, an important base, expanded into a fortress since the fighting in 2014/2015. Since the fall of Avdiivka, Kyiv has been unable to stabilize the Eastern Front. Rows of trees, fortifications and villages are lost every day. But also cities, after Avdiivka, Wuhledar already fell. And now Selydove had to be abandoned. In principle, this is a small, insignificant town with a pre-war population of around 23,000 people, including the surrounding area. A typical small town in Donbass. Actually a Cossack village, the settlement grew into a town because of a mine, just like Wuhledar. The importance today lies in the fortress-like expansion of the city. Such positions serve as breakwaters, as fixed points in the front that protect the rear space.

Selydove was captured in a few days

What’s frightening about Selydowe’s case is its speed. It took the Russians less than three weeks to conquer the city. Eight months of costly fighting passed until the fall of Bakhmut, who was, however, much larger. The changed Russian approach is once again evident in Selydove. Every step is prepared by massive bombardments by artillery and glide bombs, including drone dominance in the airspace. This time too, the decisive blows were not aimed at the fortified city area.

Coming from the south, the Russians were able to advance along the railway and reach the town of Vyshneve. This meant that they initially had the city’s main connection under fire control before cutting the route completely. As in other cases, it turns out that the Ukrainians can secure their main base, but they lack the forces for the surrounding area, so they are bypassed. With the loss of Vyshneve, the defenders had to rely on an access road. The Russians next attacked in the north of the city. There they threw the defenders out of a factory and were then able to take over the site’s waste heap. This sealed the fate of the town. From the hill, the attackers were able to see the last remaining access road and the entire city area and take them under fire. The ensuing battles only delayed the Russian advance and only served to cover the retreat of the Ukrainian troops. The last defenders are said to have left the city on the morning of October 27th.

Kyiv loses its bases in the east

But what does the loss of Selydove mean? The rapid success of the Russians and the clear superiority of their firepower does not bode well for the future either. Selydove shielded the city of Prokrovsk from the southeast. The distance as the crow flies is about 17 kilometers. In between there are other smaller settlements. The Ukrainians will try to stop the Russians there or at least delay their advance. To do this, they have to start the fight from unfavorable positions.

The situation is also critical on other sections of the Eastern Front. The most threatening for Prokrovsk are currently two Russian attack points in the area southeast of Donetsk. There the Russians attack the villages of Shakhtars’ke, Novoukrainka and Bohoyavlenka. Here too, the Russians are preparing the attack with their long-range weapons. For example with rocket artillery, including the dreaded TOS systems that shoot aerosol projectiles. These thermobaric weapons unleash a deadly fireball at the center and a dual blast wave beyond that, shattering internal organs.

If the attackers are not stopped, they will try to advance towards the N15 highway and form a large pocket in which the two Ukrainian-held towns of Kurakhove and Kurakhivka would be trapped.

Open landscape makes defense difficult

The fighting in Ukraine shows a war in slow motion; the return of a war of maneuver is unlikely. The Russians will continue to fight their way village by village in the future. But as soon as they leave the industrial zone of Donbass and reach the agricultural zone of the large fields, successful defense becomes more difficult. The settlements are becoming smaller, the open spaces between them are becoming larger and the massively built industrial facilities are missing. A small town like Selydove is large enough to hide two thousand soldiers and their equipment. This is not possible in open terrain, so it will be easier for the Russians to find targets for their glide bombs.

Kiev manages to stabilize the situation in the immediate vicinity of Prokrovsk. However, this is because the Russians have shifted the focus of their attack. With the attacks now, in 2025 they can try to get to the back of the big city from the south and thus cut off the last large chain of cities that holds Kiev in the east from the west. The Ukrainian military must prevent this at all costs. But then there is a danger that the Russians will not march towards these cities, but will turn towards the Dnipro and take the comparatively open land up to the river from Kiev.

Kyiv is no longer gaining momentum

In the ground war, Ukraine is caught on the strategic defensive, and the temporary successes in the Kursk region have not changed this. In the east, the Russians decide when and where to attack. Kyiv is too weak to take the initiative itself. The Russians are deliberately spreading the front line further and further – the Soviets have spoken of the front’s blossoming. The outnumbered Ukrainians are increasingly unable to cover this line, but cannot decide to retreat to a shorter front. The Prussian King Frederick the Great once warned: “He who defends everything – defends nothing!”

The Russians end up attacking where the Ukrainians are weakest. Where they only meet conscripts with insufficient training and equipment, the access routes and flanks are supposed to be safe.