Coalition formation: Risky BSW power struggle to form a government in Erfurt

The power struggle in the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance (BSW) is coming to a head. While the CDU, BSW and SPD are in preliminary talks for coalition negotiations in Erfurt, the criticism from the BSW federal leadership of their Thuringian regional association around the pragmatist Katja Wolf does not stop. In a resolution published on the party’s homepage, the federal executive board is now calling on Thuringians to specify foreign policy positions in coalition negotiations – or to go into opposition. As experts see it, Wagenknecht is also putting himself in a quandary.

The core of the conflict is a two-page paper that the CDU, BSW and SPD presented on Monday in Erfurt. It is intended to serve as a preamble for a possible coalition agreement in Thuringia. It also contains passages about the war in Ukraine or the stationing of US medium-range missiles in Germany. Wagenknecht had called for such an agreement before entering into coalition talks. Just hours after the presentation, the party leader spoke of a “mistake”.

Because: Unlike a similar agreement in Brandenburg, where the BSW only had to negotiate with the SPD, in Thuringia the parties not only had different positions on arms deliveries to Ukraine. There was even no criticism of possible US missiles in Germany by the possible coalition partners. Instead, it was said that many citizens viewed this critically. Wagenknecht and other BSW officials see key campaign promises not being kept and have been showering Thuringians with criticism ever since.

Did Wagenknecht underestimate Wolf?

“This is the first public power struggle that you can observe,” says political scientist Benjamin Höhne from Chemnitz University of Technology. Officially it is about security policy issues. “But the real question is: Who is in charge in the party?” Wagenknecht apparently underestimated Wolf’s willfulness – even though this had been apparent for some time.

Wolf, former mayor of the city of Eisenach and a member of the Left, is considered a pragmatist. During the election campaign she had occasionally distanced herself from Wagenknecht’s positions. She has so far ignored criticism from Berlin. When the paper was presented in Erfurt on Monday, when asked whether Wagenknecht had agreed to the agreement, she answered with a somewhat tight smile: “The approval is not formally intended.” But she admitted that she wasn’t completely relaxed.

“Dilemma that is difficult to resolve”

Wagenknecht “maneuvered himself into a dilemma that is difficult to resolve,” says Höhne. The Thuringian BSW representatives are freely elected and, in extreme cases, could join forces with the CDU and SPD even without the BSW label. “You don’t have to listen to what is decided in Saarland or Berlin. Formally, Ms. Wagenknecht’s hands are tied.” The prerequisite is that Wolf has her people behind him. On Tuesday evening, the BSW state board approved the preamble.

The political scientist Oliver Lembcke from the Ruhr University Bochum, who taught in Thuringia for a long time, also sees a danger for Wagenknecht. “She climbed a tall tree very quickly. We’ll see whether she can get down there again.” The mere fact that there are likely to be different results in the negotiations in Brandenburg, Thuringia and Saxony is damaging Wagenknecht’s image and her idea of ​​a cadre party.

Wagenknecht’s main focus is on the federal election, said Lembcke. The topic of peace is of great concern to the population and they do not want to move away from it. Höhne attests that Wagenknecht generally enjoys governing in the countries. “But if it risks losing voters in the federal election who want peace with Russia, co-government at the state level would become less important.”

Failure in Saxony is not out of the question

In Saxony, talks between the CDU, SPD and BSW have so far been slow. The Saxon BSW also recently criticized the Thuringian agreement. It said in a statement that they would “work for a clear formulation of the peace issue.” The CDU and SPD would probably orientate themselves on the Thuringian Compromise, says Lembcke. “Wagenknecht will hardly accept a second defeat in a row. That’s why failure there is by no means out of the question.”

If the pressure on Wolf becomes too great and the coalition negotiations could fail as a result, from his point of view it is also possible that the preamble that has actually already been agreed with the CDU and SPD could be renegotiated again, said Lembcke. “Wagenknecht will definitely expect some form of compensation.” In general, from his point of view, neither woman is likely to be interested in an escalation: “If you don’t deal with this now, it will be unpleasant for Ms. Wolf – but also for Ms. Wagenknecht.”