Government crisis: The path to new elections

The traffic light coalition collapsed after around three years. The federal election, which was actually scheduled for September 28th next year, is to be brought forward. The way to get there is precisely laid down in the Basic Law. Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) has already announced that he will ask the Bundestag for a vote of confidence on January 15th.

According to Article 68, the Federal Chancellor can request that the Bundestag express confidence in him. He can – but does not have to – link this to a specific legislative project. If the Chancellor does not receive a majority, he can ask the Federal President to dissolve the Bundestag. The last time Gerhard Schröder (SPD) did this was in 2005.

However, this approach is controversial because it is not intended – as intended in the Basic Law – to get the vote of confidence expressed, but on the contrary, to miss the majority necessary for this. This is why it is also referred to as a “false question of trust”. Scholz already set the tone in his statement on the dismissal of Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) when he said: “There is no basis of trust for further cooperation.”

If the Chancellor asks the vote of confidence in Parliament and does not get a majority, the next step will be to ask the Federal President to dissolve the Bundestag. According to Article 68, he has a maximum of 21 days to do this. However, he is not obliged to do this according to the Basic Law. If he does, then according to Article 39 a new Bundestag must be elected within 60 days.

In 2005, Schröder lost the vote of confidence in the Bundestag on July 1st, as desired. On July 13th he suggested to Federal President Horst Köhler that the Bundestag be dissolved, which he did on July 21st. At the same time, Köhler scheduled a new election for September 18th.

Even after the dissolution of the Bundestag, Germany is not politically leaderless. The Chancellor and his cabinet – with the exception of the FDP representatives – remain in office. This also applies in the event that forming a coalition becomes difficult after the early elections. Article 69 of the Basic Law stipulates that, at the request of the Federal President, the Chancellor is obliged to continue official duties until a successor is appointed. The same applies to federal ministers if the Federal President or Chancellor requests this.

The tasks of the four resigned FDP cabinet members (finance, justice, transport, education) can be taken over by other department heads. The Chancellor can also propose successors and have them appointed by the Federal President.

With the dissolution of the Bundestag, political action suddenly comes to a standstill. Before that, however, Chancellor Scholz says he wants to bring through important projects such as stabilizing pensions or implementing the rules of the Common European Asylum System through the Bundestag and Bundesrat. His problem is that he is now the head of a minority government and has to hope for support from the ranks of the opposition. He hopes to get that from the Union.