New election of the Bundestag
Trouble over the election date: three options in February and March
It has been clear since last week that the federal election will be brought forward. However, finding an appointment is difficult. Now there is at least some approximation.
Mid-January, late March or maybe sometime in February? There has been discussion for days about when the early federal election should take place after the traffic light coalition collapses. Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his SPD had originally targeted March 30th, but the Union then called for January 19th. Now both sides are getting closer.
The CDU/CSU’s candidate for chancellor, Friedrich Merz, described February 16th or 23rd as easily achievable at the parliamentary group executive committee meeting on Monday. The SPD has now landed on March 9th. It now seems to be a decision to be made between these three dates.
The Bundestag factions meet on Tuesday, and on Wednesday Scholz (SPD) makes a government statement on the current domestic political situation, to which CDU leader Merz and CSU leader Markus Söder respond. By then there should actually be clarity.
His original plan was: a vote of confidence in the Bundestag on January 15th and new elections at the end of March. March 30th would be the best date because there are no holidays in any federal state – an important criterion when setting election dates. At the same time, Scholz wants to reach an agreement with the Union on which projects can still be decided on in the Bundestag before the election date.
It’s too late for the Union. She first asked Scholz to ask the vote of confidence this week and then to vote on January 19th. Along with March 30, this is the only Sunday in the first quarter of 2025 on which there are no holidays. In the meantime, Merz has obviously come to the conclusion that the organizational preparations cannot be completed by then. That’s why he’s now suggesting the two dates in February.
What are the organizational hurdles?
Election committees must be appointed at district and state level, election workers must be recruited and trained, and voting rooms must be found and equipped. Election notifications are sent to over 60 million voters. In addition, there is the dispatch of postal voting documents and the establishment of postal voting districts – there were 25,000 in 2021.
The Federal Returning Officer warned in a letter at the end of last week that proper preparation for the election would hardly be possible if the date was too early. “In order to best meet challenges in electoral organization that arise from the deadlines for a new election, the period of 60 days between the dissolution of the Bundestag and the new election should be exhausted,” she confirmed in a statement today. The Bundestag must be dissolved within 21 days of a lost vote of confidence.
However, Brand did not give an exact date as to when the election could take place at the earliest. Nevertheless, the argument plays more into the hands of the SPD.
Who does the Union have on its side?
Like the Union, the voters wanted an appointment as early as possible. According to the current ARD Germany trend, 65 percent of Germans want a new election “at the earliest”. Only 33 percent are in favor of an appointment in March.
What is the current status of the discussion?
Scholz has now given in. On Sunday evening he explained in an ARD interview with Caren Miosga that he would ask the vote of confidence before Christmas if the parliamentary groups agreed on it. There are then the already mentioned deadlines of a total of 81 days within which the election date must fall. If Scholz were to ask the vote of confidence on December 20th, the Friday before Christmas, the latest election date would be March 9th.
Why would this date suit the SPD well?
Elections will take place in Hamburg, Scholz’s hometown, on March 2nd. The SPD assumes that with its first mayor, Peter Tschentscher, it will again be the strongest force there and could carry the momentum into the federal election. The SPD argues for organizational reasons for a later election date. But it is also strategically advantageous for them to have as much time as possible for the election campaign. Because in the surveys it is between 15 and 18 percentage points behind the Union. The Social Democrats are betting that Merz will make mistakes in the election campaign like the CDU/CSU candidate for chancellor Armin Laschet in 2021, and that the SPD will be able to make up for a seemingly hopeless deficit, as was the case back then. And the longer the election campaign, the more time there is to make mistakes like this.
Why does the Union want things to happen quickly?
Things can hardly get better for the Union than in the current surveys. It is not only far ahead of the SPD and the Greens, but also ahead of the AfD. The closer the election date is, the less likely the lead is to shrink. With a date in February, the Union would also slow down the momentum that the SPD is hoping for from Hamburg.
What’s next?
SPD parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich wants to reach an agreement in confidential talks with Merz. The SPD and Green factions have also requested a special public meeting of the Bundestag’s election audit committee for Tuesday. There is a need to “discuss with the Federal Returning Officer as to when, from her point of view, the new election can take place at the earliest based on her practical experience,” says a letter of application to Bundestag President Bärbel Bas (SPD), which is available to the German Press Agency. The Bundestag factions will also meet for consultations on Tuesday. The government declaration follows on Wednesday, by which time there should actually be an agreement. But that’s not clear.
Are there historical models that you can use as a guide?
Yes. For example, the vote of confidence with which Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (SPD) brought about new elections in 2005. There were 119 days between his decision to move forward and the election date. If the Union prevails this time on February 23rd, 109 days would have passed since the traffic lights went out on November 6th. If there were an election on March 9th – as the SPD wanted – it would be 124 days. Both dates are therefore not far from the time period that was sufficient for the election to be properly organized.
dpa
Source: Stern
I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.
