Path to new elections: Federal election planned for February 23rd after traffic lights are turned off

After the traffic light coalition collapsed, a new Bundestag is to be elected on February 23rd. After days of struggle, the SPD and the Union agreed to aim for this date. He is also aligned with the Greens as the SPD’s junior partner in the red-green minority government.

First, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) will ask the Bundestag a vote of confidence on December 16th. If, as expected, he does not get a majority, the election date will be formally proposed by the cabinet to Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who will then decide. But that’s just a formality.

Scholz originally wanted the end of March, the Union in mid-January

Scholz originally wanted to ask the vote of confidence on January 15th in order to bring about a new election at the end of March. After public pressure, he showed himself willing to compromise. If there is an agreement between the parliamentary group leaders of the SPD and CDU/CSU – Rolf Mützenich and Friedrich Merz – he will take this into account and be ready for a vote of confidence before Christmas, he said on Sunday.

The Union originally wanted January 19th as the election date. On Monday and Tuesday, Merz and Mützenich held talks about a compromise. The result is now February 23rd. In order to bring this about, Scholz will ask the Bundestag a vote of confidence on December 16th. If he doesn’t get a majority there, the Federal President has 21 days to dissolve the Bundestag. There is then a 60-day deadline by which the new election must take place. This deadline is February 23rd.

Holidays in two federal states

It’s not an ideal date because then it’s school holidays in Saxony. In Saarland it is the weekend immediately before the holidays, when many people are likely to have already traveled. In the first quarter, January 19th and March 30th are the only dates without holidays. These were the original proposals from the Union and SPD, which are now considered too early or too late. However, only around six percent of those eligible to vote live in Saxony and Saarland. And there is postal voting as an option.

The Federal Returning Officer believes February 23rd is feasible

Comprehensive preparations must now be made by February 23rd. Election committees must be appointed at district and state level, election workers must be recruited and trained, and voting rooms must be found and equipped. Election notifications are sent to over 60 million voters. In addition, there is the dispatch of postal voting documents and the establishment of postal voting districts – there were 25,000 in 2021.

Federal Returning Officer Ruth Brand still sees the date as uncritical. The possible dates in February mentioned in the media “I think can be carried out in a legally secure manner,” said Brand at a special meeting of the Bundestag’s election audit committee before the decision was announced.

No state elections before new elections

There will now be no more state elections until the federal election. The general election in Hamburg will take place a week later on March 2nd. This is also why the SPD sympathized with an appointment in March. She assumes that she will again be the strongest force in Hamburg with her first mayor, Peter Tschentscher, and would have liked to carry the momentum into the federal election. The Union wanted to prevent that. The Social Democrats are currently between 15 and 18 percentage points behind the CDU and CSU in the polls.

New elections in 109 days – faster than in 2005

The new election will now take place even faster than in the most recent historical example in 2005, when the then Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (SPD) asked the vote of confidence. At that time there were 119 days between the decision for a new election and the date, now it is 109 days.