Assessments of the new election: Survey: Citizens see little chance of Scholz remaining in power

According to a survey, citizens see Union Chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz (CDU) far ahead in the upcoming new election – and only minimal chances for Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD). 44 percent of the almost 2,200 respondents gave Merz the best prospects of leading the next federal government, according to a survey by the YouGov institute on behalf of the German Press Agency. Only 6 percent see the best chances for Scholz, 7 percent for the Green candidate, Economics Minister Robert Habeck.

However, more than a quarter (29 percent) are unable to decide how the election, which is expected to take place on February 23rd, could turn out. 13 percent even give AfD leader Alice Weidel the best chance of becoming chancellor, although those surveyed were asked to give an assessment regardless of their own party preference. In practice, Weidel cannot become chancellor because none of the other parties are willing to form a coalition with her and the AfD, despite its relative strength in the Sunday question ratings, is miles away from a sole majority.

Scholz’s chances are also assessed as weak by those who voted for the SPD in 2021: only 8 percent of them, little more than the average of all those surveyed, expect him to get a second term in office.

Merz is considered to have the best chances in all age groups – but he is the clear favorite, especially among older people. In the group of people over 70, it comes to 57 percent. Scholz, on the other hand, only has 3 percent.

When asked which coalition the respondents would prefer after the new election, the majority seemed to be helpless: 44 percent of those surveyed chose the answer “Don’t know” or “No information.” 35 percent are in favor of a grand coalition between the Union parties and the SPD. 15 percent would like a coalition between the Union and the Greens. The bottom line is very clear: only 5 percent of those surveyed want a new edition of the traffic light coalition made up of the SPD, Greens and FDP.

When asked which of the previous government parties is most likely to use the end of the traffic light coalition, 42 percent are of the opinion that none of the three parties will use it. 13 percent see an advantage for the SPD, 12 percent for the FDP and 9 percent for the Greens. Around a quarter of those surveyed did not provide any information on this.

The survey was carried out by YouGov from last Friday (November 8th) up to and including Tuesday with 2,193 respondents and, according to the institute, has a margin of error of plus/minus around 2.1 percentage points.