K question in the SPD: Scholz is not backing down from his candidacy – resistance is growing

Despite growing resistance in the SPD, Chancellor Olaf Scholz is not giving up his claim to be his party’s candidate for chancellor in the early federal election. “The SPD and I are ready to go into this dispute, with the goal of winning, by the way,” said Scholz before departing for the G20 summit in Brazil when asked whether he would insist on running for chancellor under all circumstances.

Shortly before, the open resistance in the SPD had reached a new level: After numerous local politicians, Joe Weingarten was the first member of the Bundestag to publicly speak out in favor of entering the election campaign with Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD), who was much more popular in the polls, at the top pull. Shortly afterwards, his parliamentary group colleague Johannes Arlt from Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania also openly campaigned for Pistorius.

The Defense Minister, in turn, once again supported Scholz: “We have a truly outstanding Chancellor who was at the helm in a difficult three-way constellation during one of the most difficult times in the Republic. He has decided that he wants to continue and the party will be informed about this by no later than January 11th will decide at the party conference,” said Pistorius on Sunday evening on ARD. He “still firmly assumes that Olaf Scholz will be nominated.”

In any case, a defense minister’s candidacy would not be possible without Scholz backing down. He had already declared his claim in July, when the break in the traffic light coalition was still a long way off: “I will run as chancellor to become chancellor again,” he said at the time. He has now failed prematurely in his plan to make the traffic light coalition a project for more than one electoral term. And with him as Chancellor, the SPD has not been able to get out of the poll low with values ​​well below 20 percent for months. The gap to the Union is currently 16 to 18 percentage points.

Party executive hesitates about nomination

The party leadership is behind the Chancellor and has repeatedly emphasized its support for him. Even after the decision for a new election on February 23rd, she initially refrained from nominating him – and thus made the candidate debate possible. Support for Pistorius has so far been placed in the third and fourth row by supporters of Scholz as a candidate for chancellor and downplayed. Joe Weingarten and Johannes Arlt are now the first members of the Bundestag to venture out of cover.

“It is my clear opinion that we should go into the election campaign with Boris Pistorius,” Weingarten told the “Süddeutsche Zeitung”. “He has the energy, the closeness to the people and the ability to say what needs to be done, even in clear German. And our country needs that now.” Weingarten belongs to the conservative Seeheimer Circle in the Bundestag faction. His parliamentary group colleague Arlt told the “Tagesspiegel” that Pistorius would be an excellent SPD candidate for chancellor. “In my opinion, he is ideally suited to lead our party in the election campaign.”

A question of survival for the SPD?

Before him, a number of local politicians had already spoken out openly in support of Pistorius. The mood in the party clearly speaks for a change, the chairman of the SPD Bochum sub-district, Serdar Yüksel, recently told “Stern”. “If you surveyed the members of the SPD, 80 percent would be for Pistorius.” Whether Scholz runs again is not just his personal decision. “The question now is whether the SPD will survive.”

The SPD leadership has been trying in vain for days to counter the growing debate. “Olaf Scholz is the Chancellor. And everyone who bears responsibility in the SPD has made it clear in the last few days that we stand behind him,” said party leader Lars Klingbeil again at the weekend on the sidelines of an SPD event in Essen. It is now important for the SPD “that we deal with the content of the federal election campaign, but not discuss personnel.”

In the “Handelsblatt” Klingbeil warned against seeing a change of candidate as a guarantee of success. It is “a misconception to think that you just swap one for the other and everything is rosy, blooms and thrives.” In addition, Pistorius himself said that he would like Scholz to run. “In this respect, there is clarity between the two of them. There is no wobbling.”

Müntefering: “Of course, counter-candidacies are possible”

But the appeals don’t work. Shortly before the Chancellor’s departure for the G20 summit, Franz Müntefering, probably the most popular living ex-party leader, spoke up. The 84-year-old called for a decision at a party conference, if necessary in a vote: “Of course, opposing candidacies in your own party are fundamentally possible and are not a sign of helplessness. They are democracy in practice,” he told the “Tagesspiegel”.

Trip to Mexico canceled: “There’s a lot going on here”

In this situation, Scholz has now been away for almost three days. The summit in Rio de Janeiro will focus on fighting poverty, reforming international institutions such as the UN, IMF and World Bank, climate protection and of course the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. On the sidelines, the Chancellor will hold bilateral talks, including with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Scholz actually wanted to travel further to Mexico on Tuesday evening, to the only Latin American G20 country that he has not yet visited in his almost three years in office. However, this part of the trip was canceled at short notice “due to the current situation” in order to “be back here in Berlin early,” as those around him said. “There’s a lot going on here.”

Decision by November 30th

Scholz will land back in Berlin on Wednesday morning. Then it should only be a matter of days before the decision on the K question is made. The party leadership will no longer wait until the party conference planned for January 11th. An “election victory conference” is planned for November 30th in Berlin, at which the candidate for chancellor will make his first major appearance.

Scholz’s withdrawal was considered unthinkable for a long time. In an interview with the “Süddeutsche Zeitung” published on Friday, he opened the door at least a crack. When asked whether he could imagine reconsidering his candidacy under certain circumstances, he answered evasively. “Well, the circumstances of the next election are pretty clear,” he said. When asked what it would be like if the poll numbers worsened, he added: “The reliability of such surveys is manageable, as the last federal election showed, even if some people quickly forgot that.”

Surveys play an important role

His answer on Sunday also lacked the clarity with which he first asserted his claim to candidacy in the summer. In fact, the polls could still play a role in deciding the K question in the next few days. In an Insa survey published on Saturday on behalf of “Bild am Sonntag”, the SPD gained one percentage point – but at 16 percent is still 16 points behind the Union at 32 percent. More survey results will follow in the next few days, which the party leadership will register carefully.

Advice from Joe Biden in Rio?

Incidentally, in Rio Scholz will meet someone who may be able to give him some advice: the outgoing US President Joe Biden. The 81-year-old withdrew his candidacy for re-election in favor of his Vice President Kamala Harris after doubts about his fitness and massive public pressure. However, it didn’t help. Harris lost to Republican Donald Trump, who will return to the White House on January 20th.