Joe Biden changes Ukraine strategy – and provokes Trump and Scholz

The Ukrainian president had been working towards this moment for months. Volodymyr Zelenskyj wants to use Western long-range missiles to attack military targets in Russia in order to destroy ammunition depots and threats there. He wants to improve the situation for the Ukrainian soldiers at the front. “Bringing the war to Russia” is probably the most important component of Zelensky’s “victory plan,” which he has been promoting to his allies for months.

After much hesitation, US President Joe Biden is now apparently complying with Zelensky’s wish. According to consistent media reports, the Ukrainians will be allowed to use US missiles to strike inside Russia in the future, specifically the “Army Tactical Missile System”. So-called ATACMS missiles can fly up to 300 kilometers, deep into Russian territory. On Sunday evening, Zelensky said in an evening speech that military strikes were “not carried out with words” and that “missiles speak for themselves.” It is expected that the Ukrainian armed forces will attack the first targets in Russia with US missiles in the coming days.

Shortly before the end of his term in office, Joe Biden is fundamentally changing his Ukraine strategy. Since the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022, Biden has repeatedly emphasized two things: first, that no US soldiers would be deployed in Ukraine, and second, that Ukraine is allowed to use American weapons almost exclusively in its territory. The Russian side spoke on Sunday, as it has often done in the past, of an “escalation” that could lead to World War III.

With his ATACMS clearance, Joe Biden is thwarting the plans for a quick end to the war that Donald Trump repeatedly promised during his election campaign. Even before he takes the oath of office on January 20, the war in Ukraine is history, Trump vowed again and again.

On Sunday, the president-elect did not personally comment on Biden’s decision. But his confidant Rick Grenell found clear words. Nobody expected that Biden would “escalate” the war in Ukraine during the transition period from the old to the new government, the former US ambassador to Germany wrote at X. “It’s like starting a whole new war would. Now everything has changed.”

A few weeks ago, before his election victory, Trump met with Zelensky in New York. Richard Grenell was one of the few people at the meeting. During the election campaign there was speculation that Grenell could become Foreign Minister under Trump. Senator Marco Rubio is now set to take on this position; Grenell is being discussed as a special representative for the Ukraine-Russia war. If he finds such drastic words about Biden’s decision, Trump’s enthusiasm will probably also be limited.

There are now difficult days ahead for the German Chancellor and his government. Since February 2022, Olaf Scholz has repeatedly stated that Germany would deliver weapons systems and ammunition to Ukraine in “lockstep” with the United States. When Ukraine urgently needed battle tanks, the Chancellor held back until Biden also promised American tanks.

Conversely, the question now arises as to whether Germany will also provide Ukraine with long-range missiles if the USA does the same. If Scholz’s logic of keeping in step still applies, German Taurus missiles would have to find their way to Ukraine. However, it is considered unlikely that Scholz will change his mind during the election campaign. Just last week he said in the German Bundestag that he was “against the fact that the weapons we supply can be used to fire shots deep into Russian territory.” He will stick to his refusal to deliver the Taurus.

For a long time, Scholz stood firmly at Biden’s side. The US President’s term ends in just over two months. Olaf Scholz, on the other hand, whose SPD is far behind in the polls, would like to become chancellor again. Loyalty to the US President may now be over.

On Sunday the Chancellor left for the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro. He will also meet Joe Biden there. The two have a lot to discuss.