Middle East: Israel approves ceasefire with Hezbollah – starting soon

More than a year after the start of the war with the Lebanese Hezbollah militia, the Israeli security cabinet has approved a ceasefire brokered by the US and France, according to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office. US President Joe Biden announced in Washington that the ceasefire would begin on Wednesday night. “According to the agreement reached today, fighting on the Lebanese-Israeli border will end tomorrow at 4 a.m. local time,” the Democrat said during a speech in Washington. That would be Wednesday at 3:00 a.m. CET.

Biden: “Good news”

The goal is a “permanent cessation of hostilities,” said Biden and spoke of “good news.” Israel will withdraw its remaining forces from Lebanon in the next 60 days, Biden said. If Hezbollah breaks the agreement and poses a threat to Israel, Israel has the right to self-defense, said the US President. This is in accordance with international law. According to a high-ranking US government official, the agreement also expressly provides for Lebanon’s right to self-defense under international law.

Netanyahu issued a stern warning to Hezbollah. “The duration of the ceasefire depends on what happens in Lebanon,” he said on television. The Israeli government claims the right to intervene militarily in Lebanon at any time if Hezbollah breaks the agreement and the Lebanese army and the international group of states fail to act. “With the full consent of the United States, we retain full military freedom of action,” Netanyahu said.

Biden was optimistic. “Civilians on both sides will soon be able to safely return to their communities and begin rebuilding their homes or schools, their farms and their businesses,” Biden continued. At the same time, the agreement supports Lebanon’s sovereignty and heralds “a new beginning for Lebanon.”

The USA has been campaigning for an agreement for weeks

The United States and other countries such as France want to “provide the necessary support to ensure that this agreement is fully and effectively implemented,” Biden said. A senior US official emphasized that the US was not negotiating with Hezbollah, but with the Lebanese government, which must now take responsibility for what is happening in the country. It was doubtful whether it would be able to do this given the weakness of the Lebanese state. There was initially no reaction from Hezbollah itself to the ceasefire announcement.

Biden emphasized that no US troops would be stationed in Lebanon. The USA, as Israel’s most important ally, has been pushing for a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel for weeks. Netanyahu emphasized: “If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to arm itself, we will attack.” Lebanon’s acting Prime Minister Najib Mikati called for immediate implementation.

The Israeli Air Force had carried out particularly massive attacks on Beirut and the southern suburbs until shortly before the ceasefire was announced. The Lebanese Health Ministry said at least 10 people were killed in the attacks in central Beirut neighborhoods. Hezbollah also continued to fire rockets into northern Israel, where there were air alerts.

Biden also hopes for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip

Biden also advocated for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. “Just as the Lebanese people deserve a future of security and prosperity, the people of Gaza also deserve a future of security and prosperity. They too deserve an end to the fighting,” he emphasized.

British Prime Minister Keir Stamer welcomed the ceasefire and also called for an end to the violence in the Gaza Strip. Britain and its allies would work to break the cycle of violence to achieve long-term peace in the Middle East. “We need immediate progress towards a ceasefire in Gaza, the release of all hostages and the lifting of restrictions on urgently needed humanitarian assistance,” he said.

French President Emmanuel Macron described the ceasefire as an opportunity for Lebanon. “It is important that this ceasefire is maintained and that it is permanent,” he said in a video posted on X. Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) spoke of a “ray of hope for the entire region”. Hundreds of thousands of women, children and families in Lebanon could now find new hope, as could tens of thousands of people from northern Israel, explained Baerbock in Berlin in the evening.

Withdrawal of Hezbollah militia and Israeli army

According to initially unconfirmed reports, after the fighting between the Israeli army and Hezbollah has stopped, the militia loyal to Iran will withdraw behind the Litani River, about 30 kilometers north of the de facto Israeli-Lebanese border. Israel’s ground troops should then withdraw from Lebanon within 60 days.

In order to prevent Hezbollah fighters from returning, soldiers from the Lebanese army, who are not actually involved in the war, will be stationed in the border area parallel to the Israeli withdrawal, the US government representative reported. According to media reports, the agreement will be monitored by a group of states led by the USA together with France, Lebanon, Israel and the UN peacekeeping force Unifil, which has been stationed in Lebanon for years. The monitoring commission should also ensure that the militia does not re-arm itself. In a later step, Israel and Lebanon should also negotiate disputed border issues.

UN resolution of 2006 as a blueprint

According to available reports, the agreement largely corresponds to UN Resolution 1701, which tried in vain to bring about a permanent end to the violence after the previous war in 2006. US mediator Amos Hochstein therefore referred to the new agreement as “1701 Plus”.

An important point of the agreement revolves around the arsenal of Hezbollah, which, according to experts, was one of the strongest paramilitary groups in the world before the start of the war. The government of Lebanon – currently only acting in office – should monitor all arms sales to the country and their production so that they do not reach Hezbollah or other armed groups. However, it is doubtful whether the relatively weak Lebanese state will be able to do this. There are similar concerns as to whether the planned deployment of a total of 10,000 soldiers from the not very powerful Lebanese army – 5,000 are already in the south – can help calm the conflict.

Hezbollah no longer depends on Gaza for shelling

According to its own statements, Hezbollah has so far fired on Israel in support of the Islamist Hamas, which triggered the Gaza war with the terrorist attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. According to Israeli military figures, the militia has fired more than 17,000 rockets at Israel since the start of the war. Originally, according to its own statements, it only wanted to end this shelling once a ceasefire was reached in the Gaza Strip. She is now apparently waiving this condition.

On the Lebanese side, Israel’s attacks reduced many villages and neighborhoods to rubble. In total, around 12,000 targets in Lebanon were bombed, the Israeli army said on request. According to Lebanese information, which cannot be independently verified, there were more than 3,700 dead and around 15,500 injured. The information made no distinction between civilians and armed people. More than 800,000 people were displaced by the fighting in the country, and hundreds of thousands fled to neighboring Syria.

In Israel during the same period, Hezbollah attacks left 76 dead, the majority of them civilians, over 700 injured and extensive property damage. However, Israel’s missile defense intercepted most of the projectiles fired by the pro-Iranian militia. Around 60,000 residents of northern Israel were evacuated.