Surveys before the federal election: SPD continues to decline – because of Scholz?

According to Forsa founder Manfred Güllner, if a decision had been made for Boris Pistorius as candidate for chancellor, the SPD would have made significant gains in the opinion research institute’s latest survey and could have overtaken the AfD as the second strongest force. “At 21 percent, the SPD would not be the strongest, but at least the second strongest party,” said the pollster of the “Augsburger Allgemeine” (Wednesday edition), according to the preliminary report. “In this respect, from a purely electoral arithmetic point of view, it would be a mistake not to nominate Pistorius as a candidate for chancellor.” According to the current RTL/ntv trend barometer, with Pistorius as candidate for chancellor the party would receive six percentage points more than with Scholz. In the latest Forsa survey, the Social Democrats only got 15 percent.

The surveys painted a clear picture, Güllner told the newspaper. “After three years of government in the traffic light coalition, the SPD and trust in Chancellor Olaf Scholz are at an all-time low.” It seems unlikely that this trust can be regained in the few weeks until the election. “The SPD would need a miracle for that, but that rarely happens in politics.” Like Scholz, CDU lead candidate Friedrich Merz also has problems mobilizing voters. Both candidates are “not real movers and shakers” who could spark enthusiasm. “If you consider the dissatisfaction with the traffic lights, the CDU should actually be well over 35 percent, but Merz is simply too poorly received by the population,” said the Forsa founder. The lack of convincing alternatives could ultimately strengthen the AfD.

According to Güllner, the Greens and the FDP are also entering the election campaign with major approval problems. “Many voters may consider it unreasonable that all traffic light parties run with the same top people.” The situation is precarious for the FDP: it has particularly disappointed the middle class, which had hoped for concrete relief from taxes, duties and, above all, bureaucracy. “Here the FDP has downright embittered its clientele,” said the pollster. The Greens, who once seemed to be on the way to becoming a people’s party, have also fallen back on their core voters. “The top candidates Lindner and Habeck, like Scholz, stand for the mistakes of the traffic lights – and the voters are very aware of that.”