The situation at a glance: Trump introduces US special envoy for the Ukraine war

With the nomination of former security advisor Keith Kellogg as special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, US President-elect Donald Trump has made another important personnel decision. The retired lieutenant general served as chief of staff on the National Security Council during Trump’s first term from 2017 to 2021 and was also security adviser to then-Vice President Mike Pence. It is not yet clear how the new Trump administration plans to make good on its announcement to end the war, which has been going on for more than 1,000 days. Meanwhile, Kellog has already developed ideas in 2023 on how he would force both sides to negotiate.

Trump praised his new special envoy for being at his side “from the beginning” and for having an outstanding career in the military and in business. “Together we will secure PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH and make America and the world SAFE again,” Trump said in a written statement. The Republican takes office on January 20th.

Trump’s new man has already outlined his Ukraine strategy

At the end of 2023, Kellogg wrote in the magazine “The National Interest” how Trump could tackle the Ukraine war in a second term. He criticized Democratic President Joe Biden for his hesitant strategy. “The result is that Ukraine has enough weapons to fight, but not enough to win.”

Instead, Moscow could be brought to the negotiating table with the threat of supplying Ukraine with significantly more and more powerful weapons. Kyiv, in turn, should be made ready to negotiate with the threat of restricting arms deliveries. The goal: “A ceasefire along the current front and subsequent negotiations would preserve a sovereign, democratic Ukraine that is anchored in the West and can defend itself,” wrote the ex-general. If the fighting ends, Ukraine could be given reliable security guarantees, including possible membership in NATO and the EU.

On the Ukrainian side, recent statements by President Volodymyr Zelensky suggest that a temporary occupation of Ukrainian territories could be accepted. The crux of the matter, however, is security guarantees to prevent Russia from possibly continuing the war. Moscow, in turn, has declared Ukraine’s NATO membership unacceptable. Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin also wants to impose a compliant government in Kyiv.

Zelensky asks allies for more anti-aircraft weapons

Zelenskyj, meanwhile, asked the NATO countries for more anti-aircraft weapons after the Russian attack with a new medium-range missile. Selenskyj reported in Kiev that he spoke about this by telephone with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. “I mentioned specific air defense systems that we need and that can work. Our partners have these air defense systems,” he said.

Last week, Russia fired a newly developed medium-range missile at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. The NATO-Ukraine Council discussed defense options in Brussels on Tuesday and promised Kiev help.

Ukraine has been defending itself against Russia’s war of aggression for more than two and a half years. The defenders have been on the defensive for months in the fighting in the east and south of the country. The entire country also suffers from constant Russian air attacks with rockets, cruise missiles and drones. The night of Thursday also began with an air alert for large parts of Ukraine because, according to the Air Force, Russian combat drones were attacking.

Further fierce fighting in the east

The Ukrainian General Staff reported 150 attacks by Russian troops on Wednesday along the front in the east and south of the country. Half of them were directed against the cities of Kurakhove and Pokrovsk. Both are at acute risk of falling into Russian hands. According to the US Institute for War Studies (ISW), the Russian army is trying to gain as much ground as possible in a good seven weeks before Trump takes office.

For its part, Ukraine is holding on as best as possible to the territory it occupies in the Russian border region of Kursk as a bargaining chip. The General Staff said there were 16 assault attacks during the Russian counteroffensive. The information cannot be verified in detail, but it provides information about the intensity of the fighting.

Meanwhile, Russia said that a “massive drone attack” had been repelled during the night on two populated areas in the southern Russian region of Krasnodar. The state news agency Tass reported that a woman was injured by falling drone fragments.

Like Moscow, the Ukrainian side is also waiting for Trump to take office. Without him, it will not be possible to force Russia to negotiate, the portal “Ukrainskaya Pravda” quoted a source in Zelensky’s team. “So we stay calm, hold Kursk and wait for January.”

Kremlin leader Putin continues his state visit to Central Asian Kazakhstan. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and his Polish colleague Donald Tusk meet in Stockholm. This is likely to be about supporting the Baltic Sea neighbors for Ukraine and defending against hybrid Russian attacks.