Will Michael Kretschmer become Prime Minister at the mercy of the AfD?

Dresden’s old town looks like the claim of a former kingdom made from rubble. A Saxon with splendor and glory. A free state on an equal footing with Bavaria. At least.

No one embodied this claim more than Kurt Biedenkopf, who led the CDU to an absolute majority in 1990. As Prime Minister, he resided in the former royal ministerial building, on which he again had a golden crown placed.

“King Kurt” and his CDU owned Saxony. The Union saw itself as a state party.

Long ago. A few days ago, Biedenkopf’s successor had to give another sobering press conference in Dresden. Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer looked even grumpier than usual when he announced that his CDU wanted to form a minority government with the SPD. Previously, talks with the left-wing spinoff BSW had failed.

“We have to recognize and respect the situation in the Free State of Saxony,” said Kretschmer. He wanted to “go to work with great humility.”

Christian Hartmann, the CDU parliamentary group leader in the state parliament, sat next to the head of the state government and assisted Kretschmer. “We are in a new world,” he said. “We will have to learn that we will lose votes.”

This is a completely new tone. And it is a turning point for the party that ruled the country almost at will for more than 34 years.

Because the new world of the Saxon Union has been cold and complicated since the state elections on September 1st. For the first time, it cannot form a parliamentary majority. Neither is it enough for the unpopular Kenya alliance with the SPD and the Greens, which has been in place since 2019. Christian Democrats and Social Democrats were still able to agree on a coalition with the BSW. At the same time, in addition to the AfD, the Left Party is also out of principle as a possible partner for the CDU.

And so Kretschmer is planning a construct that only existed in neighboring Thuringia in the Federal Republic: a minority coalition without a real tolerating partner. Together the CDU and SPD have 51 mandates. The missing ten votes should be collected when voting on laws from BSW, the Greens, the Left and the only member of the Free Voters.

A so-called consultation mechanism should help. This means that the opposition factions are already involved during government discussions on draft laws. In theory this should also apply to the AfD, but in practice it probably doesn’t. As in Thuringia, the future coalition excludes any active cooperation with the party.

There have long been calls in the Saxon Union to cooperate with the AfD, especially since this happens at the local level in many places. But Kretschmer doesn’t want that for the time being. And neither could he. After all, he is deputy to the CDU chairman Friedrich Merz, who upholds the decision to demarcate from the AfD and is currently aiming to win a federal election.

And so Kretschmer repeatedly reiterates that there is “no cooperation” and “no search for majorities” with the AfD. This is also why he is probably not relying on a sole minority government, but is negotiating with the SPD. It doesn’t just bring in ten votes. It is also the provisional guarantor against any rapprochement with the AfD. Because the moment the CDU parliamentary group implemented laws with the help of the right-wing extremists, the Social Democrats would immediately leave the government and join the fundamental opposition.

But first Kretschmer has to form this government. The coalition agreement is likely to be presented on December 6th. Afterwards, a CDU party conference and the members of the SPD must agree via survey. Then, a week before Christmas, the most important test would have to be overcome: the prime minister election.

It is considered impossible that Kretschmer can win an absolute majority in the first round of voting, apart from secret AfD maneuvers. Only from the second round of voting, when only a relative majority is needed, will it be enough for confirmation in office.

The CDU is already secretly holding talks with the Left, who are open to abstaining. It is more difficult with the green coalition partner, whom Kretschmer systematically attacked during the election campaign. The injuries are deep and probably won’t even heal in Advent.

However, the Prime Minister has a disciplinary instrument for everyone involved – and that is the state constitution. If the state parliament does not elect a new head of government four months after its constitution, the parliament will automatically be dissolved. The deadline expires at the beginning of February.

A quick new election would be bitter for most MPs; for some it would even have existential consequences. In particular, the Greens and the Left, who only barely made it into the state parliament, would have to fear for their mandates.

Nevertheless, Kretschmer’s risk remains enormous. The AfD in Thuringia had already proven in February 2020 how a secret prime ministerial election can be used for maximum destructive effect. At that time, the faction led by Björn Höcke misled parliament with a fake candidate – and the country into political chaos.

The AfD in Saxony has not yet announced its own candidate. But she could simply do what she recently officially ruled out and vote for Kretschmer in the first round. If the BSW, the Left and the Greens all voted no or abstained, it would have helped the Prime Minister into office.

Or the AfD could rely on working with the BSW to consistently produce 55 no votes and thus outvote the minority coalition. Then, even from the second round of voting onwards, possible abstentions from the Left and the Greens would not be enough for Kretschmer. And who actually says that all CDU MPs vote for their head of government?

So if Kretschmer doesn’t actually show the humility he claims before the election and make binding agreements with the Greens, the Left or the BSW, he could have a similar fate as the FDP politician Thomas Kemmerich in Thuringia almost five years ago: he only had the choice won thanks to votes from right-wing extremists.

It would be an emergency for Kretschmer. Because he would only have bad options. If he rejects his election, his career will likely be over. If he accepted it, he would be a prime minister at the mercy of the AfD. With all the consequences.