War in Syria: Battle for Aleppo – Why the Syrian conflict is flaring up again

After several years, fighting has flared up again in Syria. Within a few hours, a rebel alliance took over almost the entire city of Aleppo in the north of the civil war country. The move also apparently came as a surprise to the government of President Bashar al-Assad. Experts speak of a drastic event in the war that has been raging for almost 14 years.

Who are the rebels who attacked Aleppo?

The fighters are a rebel alliance led by the Islamist group Haiat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). It is considered the controlling force in northwest Syria, where most insurgents and rebel groups have been pushed back during the Syrian civil war. The HTS emerged from the Nusra Front, which was considered an offshoot of the terrorist organization Al-Qaeda. Although HTS officially announced its break with Al-Qaeda years ago, the group still follows the jihadist ideology. The USA lists HTS as a terrorist organization. Experts assume that tens of thousands of fighters belong to the rebels.

Why is the conflict flaring up again now?

There are several factors that have led to the Blitz offensive happening right now. The most important factor is likely to be the regional weakening of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s allies: Russia and Iran are Syria’s main supporters and helped Assad push back the insurgents a few years ago. But both countries are currently tied up in other conflicts and weakened as a result: Russia is fighting in Ukraine, and Iran is militarily weakened by Hezbollah’s conflict in Lebanon with Israel. In addition, the rebels appear to have been preparing for an attack over the long term. They used heavy weapons and sometimes drones to be able to advance so quickly.

Which parties to the conflict are there in Syria?

In 2011, Syrian President Assad brutally suppressed demonstrations during the so-called Arab Spring. The protests quickly developed into mass protests and ultimately into a conflict and proxy war with international involvement. Syria is supported by Russia and Iran. Pro-Iranian militias such as Hezbollah support the Syrian government.

There are different forces among the rebel groups, one of the strongest is the Islamist HTS. In addition, Kurdish forces supported by the USA control a large part of northern Syria, including along the border with Türkiye. Turkey is occupying border areas in northern Syria as a result of several military operations and is cooperating with rebel groups. Israel has also recently repeatedly carried out air strikes in Syria, which have been directed, among other things, against fighters from the Lebanese Hezbollah. This also further contributed to the weakening of the Syrian government.

Why is Aleppo so central?

Aleppo is Syria’s second largest city and the largest metropolis in the north of the country. It has long been the economic center of Syria and is an important hub. There is also a symbolic character. Rebels controlled Aleppo for a long time. In December 2016, the Syrian government was able to retake the city with the help of Russia. Large parts of Aleppo were destroyed and the opposition left Aleppo for Idlib province. The recapture of Aleppo in 2016 is considered a crucial turning point in the Syrian civil war, in which government troops have since regained control of around two-thirds of the country.

What does the attack on Aleppo mean now?

The current rebel offensive could also represent a turning point. The insurgents have shown that, despite years of setbacks, they are still capable of achieving military success. The offensive shows the current weakness of the government and its allies. The decisive factor will be whether the rebels can hold the city and how Iran and Russia support Syria.