Syria: Why Israel fears the fall of arch-enemy Assad

A joke is currently circulating in Israel about the fighting of Islamist militias in Syria against the regime there: “We wish both sides good luck.” The fighting in the neighboring Arab country is raging between two parties, neither of which are known for their friendship with Israel.

On the one hand, the dictatorial ruler Bashar al-Assad. Ally of Russia and Iran, Israel’s archenemy.

On the other hand, Islamist groups that are united in their opposition to the Assad regime, but sometimes pursue different goals and are unpredictable.

So what is the lesser evil? The familiar enemy – Assad? Or Islamist militias with whom we share a common enemy but whose intentions regarding Israel are unclear?

Syria and Israel have been in conflict for more than half a century; Israel annexed a significant part of the border area, the Golan Heights, decades ago. However, experts often describe shelling by Syria as just routine attacks that rarely cause damage and usually occur in uninhabited areas. Israel, in turn, has been shelling targets in Syria, particularly in recent days, that are linked to Iran and its supply routes for Hezbollah, such as weapons depots. Iranian officials have also been deliberately killed.

But unlike Iran’s other allies, the Assad regime has so far refrained from opening its own war front against Israel. Since the brutal attack by Hamas on October 7, 2023, the Syrian side has mainly carried out sporadic attacks. Assad is just that: an enemy. But one that Israel knows how to assess.

However, Iran’s influence in Syria has continued to grow since the civil war began in 2011, and the country is becoming more dependent on its imports, money and military support. Iran is specifically using this for its anti-Israel strategy: the mullahs’ regime has established a strong military presence in some parts of Syria. And geographically alone, Syria is important for Iran and its allied militias: the route to Lebanon leads through Syrian territory. And that’s where Hezbollah is based, whose arsenals are replenished via this route.

Hezbollah had been firing heavily at Israel since October 7th, Israel’s army had fought back, and there was open war for two months. The recently negotiated ceasefire now threatens to collapse again. Hezbollah fired on Israeli positions in the Golan Heights area and spoke of a “warning” to Israel, whose army was also carrying out renewed attacks on Lebanon.

The carefully balanced balance of terror is now in danger of tipping. In a rapid attack that lasted just 72 hours, the Islamist militias took control of Syria’s second largest city, Aleppo. The main group is called Hayat Tahrir ash-Sham (HTS). The rebels have been fighting against Assad since the civil war broke out in 2011. During the war, the ruler brutally suppressed protests against the government. Half a million people were killed and millions more were displaced. Recently, the conflict seemed largely frozen.

The jihadist groups probably also have Israel to thank for the success of their blitzkrieg. “Israel has massively weakened the forces of Hezbollah, which would otherwise have supported Assad. Assad’s opponents have seized the opportunity,” says Nitzan Nuriel, Israeli brigadier general and former director of the counterterrorism office of the Israeli National Security Council.

On Sunday, a Syrian rebel commander even spoke openly on Israel’s Channel 12 television about why they were striking now: “We looked at the ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah and understood that this is the right time to liberate our country,” said the insurgent. The aim is to overthrow the Assad regime and install a government that maintains good relations with all neighbors – including Israel. Another Syrian opposition activist said on the Israeli radio station KAN: “We love Israel and have never been its enemies.”

Pro-Israeli Islamists? It sounds strange, because recently other sounds were heard from the ranks of HTS. Leader al-Julani represents ultra-religious Islamic ideas and said a few days after October 7 that “the people of Gaza” had “humiliated the pride of the occupying Zionists” and “brought joy to the hearts of the oppressed.” There is even a $10 million bounty on Al-Julani’s head in the United States, who is classified as a terrorist.

If Israel has learned anything in the past few decades, it is that Islamist militias are not harmless pawns that do the dirty work: HTS was once the Syrian branch of the terrorist network al-Qaeda, officially split off in 2016 – but remains a Salafist jihad organization , which is classified as a terrorist organization in the USA, among others. Some in Israel fear that a common enemy is not enough to rule out a risk: namely that Islamist groups will sooner or later increasingly shell Israeli territory.

And then there are the chemical weapons that Syria’s ruler Assad is notorious for using. “If chemical weapons fall into the hands of the rebels, it could threaten Israel and the entire region,” says Nitzan Nuriel. “Assad used chemical weapons against his opponents. So perhaps the rebels feel free to retaliate in kind. And to use them against other opponents. They are unpredictable.”

The sudden advance has even led some to fear the rise of an Islamist, Taliban-like regime. However, it is still unclear what can be expected from the rebel groups.

Last Friday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the heads of the defense apparatus to a special meeting. It was said that the chaotic developments in Syria were being observed. An Israeli official told the Ynet news portal: “It doesn’t necessarily affect us, especially not in the short term, but any erosion of stability in a neighboring country could also affect us.” Above all, they are concerned about the possibility that certain weapons could fall into the hands of the rebels.

It is believed that Israel would likely intervene directly if Syrian chemical weapons fell into the wrong hands or if the Golan Heights, the Israeli-occupied border area, were threatened. “In this situation, Israel is primarily ensuring that the border is well protected, with troops and intelligence information,” says Nitzan Nuriel. Otherwise the motto applies: “Stay out of it unless it directly affects us.”