Is the Ukraine conflict escalating? A meeting between Russia and the USA in Paris could bring the hoped-for relaxation. And at the same time, the parties are making preparations for an emergency. The negotiating partners are now faced with this problem.
The situation in the Ukraine conflict is coming to a head. The parties react with mutual accusations. Just last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused the United States and NATO of operating a “machine against Russia.” He criticized the eastward expansion of the western military alliance. Conversely, the United States accused the Russians of harassing American citizens and threatened military consequences if Russia invaded Ukraine.
Germany and France had also warned Moscow of an attack. US President Joe Biden also threatened for the first time to impose sanctions directly on President Vladimir Putin. “I can imagine that,” Biden replied on Tuesday (local time) to a reporter’s question. France’s head of state Emmanuel Macron warned in the event of aggression: “The price would be very high.” Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) said that Russia was expected to take clear steps that would contribute to de-escalation.
A meeting between Russia and Ukraine on Wednesday in Paris could bring steps towards détente. For the first time since the current tensions began, official representatives of both conflict countries are meeting there. Germany and France are also to take part in the talks at advisor level in the so-called Normandy format. They mediate in the conflict.
A stalemate?
According to Élysée circles, the talks in Paris will deal with humanitarian measures and future considerations in Ukraine. They also want to find a date on which Ukraine will negotiate with the separatists loyal to the Kremlin about a special status for the Donbass region. Ukraine has so far officially rejected this. She sees Moscow and not the separatists as a negotiating partner.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, according to the state agency TASS, the deputy head of the presidential administration, Dmitry Kozak, will raise Russia’s concerns about the situation on the front line in eastern Ukraine at the talks in Paris. Moscow accuses the government in neighboring Ukraine of not implementing the peace plan negotiated in 2015 with the mediation of Germany and France.
However, the Ukrainian negotiator Andriy Yermak has already made it clear: “We will implement the Minsk agreements exclusively in the interests of Ukraine.” However, the head of the presidential office was basically pleased on Ukrainian television that a meeting of this format was taking place again.
According to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, anything is possible in the conflict with Russia. “We are literally in a situation where anything can happen,” Kuleba said in an interview with CNN on Tuesday. He cannot read the mind of Russian President Vladimir Putin. “If Russia is ready to act without ulterior motives, there is an opportunity to leave the negotiating room and say that we have reached an agreement.” At the same time, Kuleba emphasized that his country would not simply follow the instructions of a major power in the conflict.
NATO fears Russian invasion of Ukraine
The conflict in eastern Ukraine has been smoldering since 2014. The peace plan negotiated in Minsk, Belarus, is on hold. According to UN estimates, more than 14,000 people have been killed in fighting between Ukrainian government troops and pro-Kremlin separatists in Ukraine’s Donbass region. The last meeting in the Normandy format at top level was at the end of 2019. At the advisor level, there were two meetings at the beginning of January, albeit separately with Ukraine and Russia.
Although the results of the format have so far fallen short of expectations, Macron defended the plane as the only political format and said it was important to continue within this framework. On Friday, Macron, who relies on a continuous dialogue with Russia, wants to propose a way of de-escalation in a telephone call to his colleague Vladimir Putin.
With a massive Russian troop buildup near Ukraine, there are fears in the West that the Kremlin may be planning an invasion of the neighboring country, something Moscow denies. However, it is also considered possible that fears are only being stirred up in order to persuade the NATO states to make concessions when demands for new security guarantees are made.
In response to the escalating tensions, several NATO member countries sent ships and military aircraft eastwards at the beginning of the week. The Kremlin sharply criticized this. The Russian army has reported several maneuvers at the same time. According to the Interfax agency, the Northern Fleet announced maneuvers in the Arctic on Wednesday night with up to 1,200 soldiers. Submarines, 20 aircraft and up to 30 ships are involved.
Source From: Stern
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