Civil War: What does the fall of the Syrian city of Homs mean?

By taking Homs, the rebels in Syria may have set a decisive course in the years-long civil war. The rebel alliance led by the Islamist group Haiat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) announced that night that it had completely taken over the strategically important city. This opens the way to the capital Damascus.

After the front lines in the civil war had barely moved for years, a rebel offensive launched towards the end of November suddenly gained significant momentum. In a very short time, the insurgents took over a lot of territory, sometimes without a fight. An overview of what could happen after Homs is taken.

Why is the city of Homs so strategically important?

Homs is located in the central west of Syria, it is a junction between the capital Damascus, the coastal regions and the north of the country. It connects the capital Damascus with the Syrian Mediterranean ports. On the coast, Russia, one of President Bashar al-Assad’s most important allies, has stationed fighter bombers and helicopters at Hmeimim airport and a troop contingent of unknown strength in the port city of Tartus.

In addition, the large city with its around 1.5 million inhabitants has long been a symbolic site of resistance against Assad’s rule, meaning its fall has a significant political and military signal effect.

Control of Homs now allows the rebels to plan their offensive on Damascus. “Whoever wins the battle with Homs will rule Syria,” said the head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Rami Abdel-Rahman, to the German Press Agency.

What is behind the rebels’ rapid progress?

The Islamists have made enormous territorial gains in the past few days. According to the Crisis Group think tank, these also revealed the weaknesses of the Syrian defense, “which collapsed along the entire front, with soldiers and other pro-government forces fleeing rather than fighting back.” The think tank also cited the fall of Aleppo last Sunday as an example, where strategically important positions such as the citadel were abandoned almost without a fight.

How are Syria’s allies, Russia and Iran, reacting?

A change of power in Syria or even the fall of Assad would have serious consequences for the Iranian leadership and Russia. Russia has significantly increased its air strikes and recently reported successful strikes against rebel positions and ammunition depots. Hundreds of terrorists and dozens of units of military technology were destroyed, the Russian Air Force said.

Under no circumstances does Russia want to jeopardize what it has achieved since it began helping Assad in 2015, including an air force base and the naval base in Tartus. But because the country has hardly any resources left due to its war of aggression against Ukraine, experts in Moscow point out that Assad must also ask other allies for help in order to save himself.

For Tehran, the alliance with Syria is seen as a “corridor” to the Mediterranean in order to support the Hezbollah militia, which is allied with Iran. Syria’s government is helping Iran – like militant groups – as part of the so-called resistance axis in the fight against Israel. Just a few days ago, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared that he would examine possible troop deployments if the Syrian government requests this.

How dangerous is it now for President Bashar al-Assad?

Syria’s long-term president Bashar al-Assad could now be cut off from his coastal strongholds. According to the government, he remained in the capital. But many people no longer believe this. Decisions in Moscow and Tehran about how to help the ally are also likely to be central to the further course of the civil war. “As in 2015, when the tide in the Syrian war turned in the government’s favor, Russia’s support could be a decisive factor,” says the Crisis Group’s analysis.

Although Assad had announced a counteroffensive shortly after the rebel advance began, the army has so far not been able to successfully defend a major city. There is unrest in Damascus. Many families close to the Syrian president have already left their homes and traveled to Lebanon, according to well-informed circles in the Syrian capital.