Civil War in Syria: Upheaval in Syria: What does the fall of Assad mean?

Events are happening rapidly: in less than two weeks, an alliance of insurgents in Syria has taken control of the most important cities and forced Syria’s ruler Bashar al-Assad to flee. After almost 14 years of civil war, the next big upheaval is beginning in the Arab country.

Has the Assad government finally fallen?

Assad’s return to power seems virtually impossible after his escape from Damascus. In recent years, his weak government has only been able to hold on with the support of Russia, Iran, the Lebanese Hezbollah and other militias loyal to Iran. If Assad survives the escape, he is likely to go into hiding, for example in Moscow. The army, Assad’s main Syrian supporter, has also announced the end of his government. Syria has been ruled by the Assad family for decades; Assad’s father Hafez became the de facto sole ruler in 1970.

What’s next in Syria?

That is unclear. The alliance of insurgents, which took control of large areas including the capital Damascus, is led by the Islamist group Haiat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Translated, this roughly means “Organization for the Liberation of (Greater) Syria”.

She previously had connections to the terrorist organizations Islamic State (IS) and Al-Qaeda. However, she later publicly broke away from them. For several days now, leader Abu Mohammed al-Julani has been using his real name, Ahmed al-Sharaa, and has struck a more diplomatic and conciliatory tone. HTS has also previously been accused of torture and executions. The EU and the USA classify HTS as a terrorist organization.

Will HTS take power in Syria alone?

No. HTS is the most powerful of the rebel groups, which has joined forces with other groups to fight Assad. After the fall of the Assad government, the rivalry between these groups could become more pronounced again and lead to new fights in a power vacuum. There are also other rebel groups in the north that are supported by Turkey, Kurdish militias in the northeast and cells of the terrorist militia IS that carry out attacks. It is unclear which group or possibly a new alliance could take power and also what role the soldiers and other security forces who have previously remained loyal to Assad will play.

What does Assad’s fall mean for Syria and its ally Iran?

According to critics, Assad is the fall of one of the greatest and most brutal rulers in the Middle East, who used poison gas and torture against his own population, among other things. The Assad monuments that are now falling are a reminder of the overthrow of the long-term rulers of Iraq and Libya, Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi. Many Syrians are cheering Assad’s end, while others fear a new, different tyranny under the insurgent Islamists. ‘

Iran is losing an important strategic ally in Assad. Tehran financed the Assad government and helped it militarily, including using Syria as a “corridor” to the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon. With the change of power in Syria, Iranian Middle East policy – and in particular the fight against arch-enemy Israel – is reaching a dead end. Critics accuse the Iranian leadership of wasting billions of US dollars with their miscalculation in Syria.

Some even see Assad’s fall as a major turning point for the so-called “Axis of Resistance” that Iran has formed against Israel. After the killing of Hamas foreign chief Ismail Haniya and Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah and now the escape of Assad, three top figures of the “Axis” were eliminated within a few months. A member of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), which kept Assad’s government alive for a long time, compares the events in Syria with the fall of the Berlin Wall, reports an Iran reporter for the New York Times.

How does Assad’s fall affect neighboring Israel?

Israel is monitoring developments in its northern neighbor Syria with great vigilance. The fall of Assad is seen as a major setback for Israel’s arch-enemy Iran. Because the important land connection between Iran and the Mediterranean has been cut, it will hardly be possible to rearm Hezbollah, against which Israel waged war until a ceasefire a week and a half ago. All of this plays into Israel’s hands.

From Israel’s perspective, the collapse of Assad’s rule is part of a regional chain reaction that began with the terrorist attack on Israel by Hamas and other extremist groups on October 7, 2023.

What could follow in the region?

Israeli analyst Udi Evental speaks of a “regional earthquake” caused by the fall of Assad. He now expects several possible “aftershocks” in the region. The Islamist Hamas in the Gaza Strip and the Shiite Hezbollah in Lebanon have already been largely defeated. The “ring of fire” with which Iranian accomplices surrounded Israel within a decade was practically completely destroyed by the events in Syria.

Evental now sees better chances for a ceasefire and a hostage deal in the Gaza Strip after more than a year of devastating war in the coastal strip. “Hamas has lost the support of the (Iranian) axis, is left alone and signals growing interest in an agreement.” This offers the opportunity to “clear the slate” before Donald Trump takes office as US President in January so that we can “focus together on the central threat: the Iranian nuclear program.”

What role do Russia, Turkey and the USA play?

For years now, developments in Syria have not been initiated in Damascus, but rather in Tehran as well as in Moscow and Ankara. Russia kept Assad in power during the civil war with air strikes, but reduced the number of troops in the country because of the war in Ukraine. Moscow is still likely to try to keep its important air and naval bases on the Mediterranean coast, also because of their proximity to Europe and to secure its interests in Africa.

In the case of Russia and Turkey, which occupies areas in northern Syria, it is unclear to what extent there could be future agreements with the new rulers in the country. Experts suspect that Turkey at least approved the offensive to put pressure on Assad. He had previously rejected normalization with neighboring Türkiye – to the displeasure of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Because of the tensions in his own country, he would like to, among other things, return refugees to Syria. Erdogan has also made it clear that he will not tolerate an expansion of the presence of Kurdish militias on the border with Türkiye.

The USA, for its part, has stationed a few hundred soldiers in Syria to fight against the terrorist militia IS. But they were also a kind of western wedge deep within Iran’s sphere of influence. After Trump takes office in Washington, who had already ordered a US troop withdrawal from Syria in 2019, the military balance of power there could change again. Trump has now made it clear that he does not want the US to interfere in any way in the crisis in Syria because it is not their fight.

What will happen to the millions of Syrian refugees?

In recent years, Syria has by no means been a safe country to return to. Those who fled Assad’s troops, his allies or other armed groups during the civil war that began in 2011 could now still consider returning. More than three million Syrian refugees live in neighboring Turkey and many more in Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt. More than 14 million people were displaced during the civil war, around half of them in their own country.

What does the new situation mean for refugees in Germany?

According to the Central Register of Foreigners, there were 974,136 Syrian nationals in Germany on October 31st. The majority of them are refugees or asylum seekers. In the first eleven months of this year, 72,420 people from Syria applied for asylum for the first time to the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (Bamf). Many of the refugees who came to Germany in 2015 and 2016 have now become German citizens.

How the new situation will affect the refugee situation depends on whether there will be a largely peaceful transition after the fall of Assad or whether vigilantism and power struggles will cause new instability. “If the situation develops positively, a number of Syrians would want to return,” says Pro Asyl’s refugee policy spokesman, Tareq Alaows, to the German Press Agency. Others who had found work and started a family in Germany, however, wanted to stay and would probably only want to visit their old homeland. The activist says: “Over 600,000 people from Syria live in Germany with a temporary residence permit. They need security.”