Mario Voigt and his almost impossible task in Thuringia

There it was, the sentence that triggered a government crisis in Thuringia on February 5, 2020 – but which will now, on December 12, 2024, lead to the formation of a workable state government. On Thursday, at 10:27 a.m., Mario Voigt said: “Yes, I accept the election.”

A few minutes later he ended the swearing-in formula with the sentence: “So help me God.” That’s what it’s like for a Christian Democrat.

But actually someone very earthly had helped him into office. It was only because some opposition left-wing MPs elected the CDU state leader that he achieved an absolute majority in the first round of voting. He received 51 out of 88 votes. The AfD was deprived of any space for destructive maneuvers.

Another original Thuringian experiment is beginning again: Voigt’s CDU governs with the SPD and a party that still looks like a mixture of a political Rotary Club and a Sahra-Wagenknecht electoral association.

In general, the coalition with the somewhat silly name “Blackberry” is a special case in the Federal Republic of Germany’s democracy. It neither has its own majority in the state parliament nor can it be described as a minority government. 44 out of 88 votes are a stalemate.

But hey, that’s Thuringia. The country in which Bodo Ramelow was the first and only left-wing Prime Minister. The country in which an FDP head of government named Kemmerich was elected with the help of the AfD. The country that was most recently administered by a red-red-green minority government and experienced changing majorities.

Thuringia is also the only country in which the CDU and the Left have already cooperated out of necessity. After Kemmerich’s resignation almost five years ago, the CDU allowed the leftist Ramelow back into office and temporarily agreed to de facto toleration of his government.

Now, almost five years later, the roles are reversed. At least indirectly, the Left supports a CDU-led government.

The fact that it was probably at least seven left-wing MPs who helped Voigt gain an absolute majority in the first round of voting shows political maturity. After meandering between hubris and double standards for weeks, the previous ruling party decided to put the country’s ability to act above its own interests. Before that, however, Voigt had come up with something to help her.

Of course, that’s not really nice for the Union Chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz. Although his party does not have a prime minister at the mercy of the AfD, it does have a head of government with Ramelow’s blessing, who is also in a coalition with Wagenknecht’s party. This is a burden for the federal CDU, which made an incompatibility decision with the Left in 2018.

But at least the Union now has one more Prime Minister. In addition, the central lesson from the Kemmerich election had to be taken into account: never underestimate the destructive power of extremists. After all, Thuringia is also the state in which the AfD is led by Björn Höcke – and now even has a blocking minority.

Höcke will be lurking in the background and waiting for mistakes. Because Voigt is faced with an almost impossible task. The stagnation of the economy, the division in society, the loss of trust in institutions, the rise of populists and extremists: everything that can be observed throughout Germany is becoming more pronounced in Thuringia.

In addition, the government not only lacks a majority in the state parliament, but also the money necessary to take action. The last reserves are planned for in the current budget draft. From 2026 there is a risk of a billion dollar deficit.

Skepticism towards the Voigt government is correspondingly high. According to a survey, Thuringia likes the new coalition. Half of them reject it, the rest are undecided.

But perhaps these low hopes also represent an opportunity. If Thuringians don’t think much of the state government, Voigt could surprise them just as positively as he did with his election result.

In addition, political unpredictability is no longer exclusive to Thuringia. In Brandenburg, Dietmar Woidke was only confirmed as head of an SPD-BSW government in the second round of voting, and perhaps only thanks to votes from the AfD. And in Saxony next Wednesday, CDU Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer is threatened with a major debacle in his re-election attempt.

Perhaps what lies ahead for Voigt in the next few years is even the future of the entire Federal Republic. Nobody knows what majorities will be formed in the new Bundestag or how strong the AfD or the BSW will be.

Thuringia could soon be everywhere.