Overthrow in Syria: Military analysis: Russia weakened in the Mediterranean

According to an internal German military analysis, Russia is making all necessary preparations for a complete evacuation of its military bases in Syria. The Russian Mediterranean Association has already left the Syrian port of Tartus, according to a note from the Defense Ministry, which is available to the German Press Agency in Berlin.

Security guarantees from the new rulers in Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad probably only refer to the withdrawal of Russian forces “and not to their permanent whereabouts.”

Russian hub for Africa is disrupted

The military airport in Latakia, Syria – like the port of Tartus so far – will be used by Russia to maintain a hub in Libya in North Africa to supply Russian forces in Africa.

Losing the Latakia airfield would likely lead to a disruption in air transport from Russia to Libya, as the aircraft would be able to carry less material due to the longer flight distance. This meant that air transport of heavy goods without a stopover would only be possible if there were still Turkish transit permits. “These are being assessed critically within NATO,” the note says.

It is likely that a loss of the Russian bases in Syria will affect Russia’s logistical processes “to and from Africa, at least in the short to medium term, and that heavy material transport can be carried out to a lesser extent.” However, the current level of military engagement in Africa “in principle will not be significantly affected”.

Material transport and resupply of weapons hindered

The Syrian port of Tartus has so far been the only base permanently available to Russia in the Eastern Mediterranean. The loss will probably have a strategically negative impact on Russia’s reliable military presence in the Eastern Mediterranean: material transport and the resupply of fired weapons will only be possible under certain conditions or will no longer be possible at all.

It goes on to say that without an agreement with the new Syrian rulers, Russia will probably only be able to maintain a “limited maritime presence in the Mediterranean.”