Bundestag election campaign: Merz expects the SPD to win over 20 percent

Union Chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz expects the SPD to catch up even further before the federal election. “I expected it to be exactly the same,” he said in the podcast of the “Table.Briefings” newsletter format. In the end, the SPD will probably be “two ahead”. In recent election surveys, the Social Democrats gained around two points to 16 to 17 percent, while the Union lost slightly to 31 to 32 percent.

The Social Democrats had suffered the most from the disputes of the last few months; with the drop to 14 percent, they were “far below their core potential,” explained the CDU chairman and head of the Union faction. Most survey institutes put the Union’s potential at 40 rather than 30 percent. She has her core electorate largely behind her. “We now have to try to reach the swing voters from the core electorate,” explained Merz.

He wants to stick to his course towards the Greens, even though CSU leader Markus Söder has ruled out an alliance with them. Söder has tough competition in Bavaria from the Free Voters, who are looking for every opportunity to attack the Greens. That’s why he can understand Söder “very well,” said Merz.

Nevertheless, with his “whole-of-state perspective” he sticks to the line that the centrist parties, including the Greens, “of course have to remain capable of cooperating and, at the end of the day, also capable of forming a coalition.”

However, he agrees with Söder when it comes to assessing the green economic policy to date: “Anyone who is not prepared to take part in the change in economic policy is not an option for us as a coalition partner.”

What does Merz say about criticism of the election program?

In the election program, the Union promises to work in a new coalition to, among other things, tax relief and a reduction in energy costs. Social Democrats and Greens criticize insufficient statements about financing. SPD leader Lars Klingbeil said in the ARD report from Berlin: “That has a volume of around 100 billion annually, so a legislature 400 billion. But there is not a single suggestion as to how this can be financed.”

Merz countered in the same broadcast: “This is very serious because we do the counter-calculation,” he said. “We point out that just one percent (economic) growth – and that is the lower limit of what we have to achieve – means ten billion euros more government revenue.”

In addition, the costs of citizens’ money have exploded and now amount to almost 50 billion euros. “We will turn this citizen’s money system upside down and we will be able to save tens of billions,” he added.

Does Merz help the traffic light parties with cold tax progression?

Merz does not want to support the current tax relief of the old traffic light parties SPD, Greens and FDP by reducing the so-called cold progression by influencing the Union Prime Ministers. The traffic light project has already been approved in the Bundestag, but still requires the approval of the states in the Bundesrat.

“It’s just another five days, something the federal government needed three years to do and couldn’t come to an agreement on,” said Merz. Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) must now speak to the states: “Because more than half of what he promises here has to be paid for by the states and municipalities in Germany.”