Question of trust: Why Olaf Scholz will definitely lose

This column first appeared on December 5, 2024. Due to current circumstances, we are republishing it here. You can read all current developments regarding the question of trust in Chancellor Scholz here in the live blog.

It sounds strange, but it’s true: When Olaf Scholz submits a motion in the Bundestag to express confidence in him on December 16th, the Chancellor wants to achieve the opposite. The Bundestag should express no confidence in him. This defeat alone opens a path to the new elections he announced, because it gives the Chancellor the right to propose to the Federal President that Parliament be dissolved. According to the Basic Law, it is the only way to have early elections.

The fact that a chancellor has to request something that he doesn’t want makes the matter complicated enough in itself, which is why it has already been the subject of fundamental consideration by the Federal Constitutional Court. This time the matter seems to be becoming even more confusing due to persistent speculation that the AfD could vote for Scholz on December 16th and, together with the votes of the SPD and the Greens, give him a majority.

Individual AfD MPs have already indicated such an intention, citing Scholz’s refusal to deliver the Taurus system to Ukraine. The AfD as a whole, it is said here and there, could be interested in a victory for the Chancellor in the vote of confidence in order to discredit parliamentary operations as a whole – or also in order to screw up the political ambitions of Union Chancellor candidate Merz because of his firewall dictum. The origin of all suspicions against the AfD can best be summarized as follows: With them you never know.

So is it realistic that Olaf Scholz will stay in office with the help of the right-wing extremists? The answer is simple: no.

The Bundestag currently has 733 members. The Chancellor’s majority required for the vote of confidence is 367 votes. The SPD and the Greens have a total of 324 mandates. So 43 of the 76 AfD MPs needed to vote for Scholz – assuming that the SPD and the Greens voted together for the Chancellor.

That’s where it starts. The Greens, who want Habeck as chancellor, actually no longer have any reason to trust Scholz. And lately he has been trying not to provide them with one. For example, in his speech at the start of the election campaign a few days ago, the SPD candidate for chancellor said: “For many in the country, the Greens only represent bullying, excessive demands and state paternalism.” Such pleasantries from the Chancellor’s mouth should make it easier for many Greens to abstain from voting on the vote of confidence. At least.

Even in the SPD, unified voting behavior is not necessarily to be expected. And that’s not because some MPs are at odds with Chancellor candidate Scholz, but because dual loyalty is common practice among Social Democrats. As early as 2005, when Gerhard Schröder asked the vote of confidence with the same intention as Olaf Scholz, the SPD parliamentary group fell apart: 105 MPs, including the current parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich, voted for Schröder in the roll-call vote, 140 abstained, including Schröder himself, today’s SPD leader Lars Klingbeil and MP Olaf Scholz.

If the SPD parliamentary group behaves like this again in 2024, the behavior of the AfD will no longer play a role. In other words: By not giving Scholz the trust he asks them for, enough SPD MPs can ensure that he achieves what he really wants.

Democracy can be that simple.