Federal election: Only one step left until new elections

It is the decisive step on the way to the new Bundestag elections on February 23rd: The Bundestag answered no to Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s vote of confidence. Only 207 MPs supported him; he would have needed at least 367 votes for a majority. Now all that remains is for Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to agree to the plan to bring forward the election, originally planned for September 28, 2025, by a good seven months.

Why did Scholz ask the question of trust?

It is the only way for him to bring about an early federal election himself. Because the Bundestag cannot dissolve itself. Scholz had already announced this step on November 6th, immediately after the sacking of FDP Finance Minister Christian Lindner and the end of his traffic light coalition, in order to ensure stable conditions again. He is currently leading a government supported by the SPD and the Greens, which no longer has a majority in the Bundestag. Without support from the opposition, she can no longer achieve anything.

How exactly did the vote turn out?

207 MPs voted for Scholz, 394 against him, 116 abstained. Before the vote, only the SPD parliamentary group with its 207 MPs had announced that they would vote for Scholz. The Green Party leadership, however, recommended that its 117 parliamentarians abstain. She wanted to prevent the AfD from thwarting the new election plan. If the Greens had voted for Scholz as a whole, that would have been 324 votes together with the SPD, i.e. only 43 less than the required majority. Then the AfD with its 76 MPs could have mathematically helped Scholz gain a majority – which he didn’t want.

Did anyone from the opposition vote for Scholz?

Yes, but these were exceptions, as the voting lists published by the Bundestag show. Three AfD MPs voted for the chancellor, former AfD party leader Alexander Gauland abstained. In addition, three non-attached parties voted for Scholz, including Transport and Justice Minister Volker Wissing, who left the FDP.

Now what is the next step?

Now it’s the Federal President’s turn. Scholz suggested the dissolution of parliament to Frank-Walter Steinmeier at a meeting in Bellevue Palace. The head of state now has three weeks to do this. The Federal President has announced that he would like to hold discussions with the parliamentary groups and groups beforehand. This is “good state practice” since a dissolution of the Bundestag affects all members of parliament, he told ARD. The aim is to explore whether majorities can be found for other governments that promise stability. The first to come to Bellevue Palace this Tuesday are SPD parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich and opposition leader Friedrich Merz.

Is that really conceivable?

No. All factions and groups in the Bundestag want new elections. Steinmeier knows that too. That’s why he added in the interview: “I won’t be surprised if this possibility doesn’t come up in discussions with the parliamentary group leaders and group leaders.” It is therefore certain that Steinmeier will agree to the Chancellor’s proposal to dissolve the Bundestag.

The new election must then take place within 60 days. The SPD, the Greens and the Union, the largest opposition faction, have agreed on February 23rd as the election date. However, according to the Basic Law, the Federal President determines the election date. However, he has already made it clear that he considers February 23rd to be a realistic date.

Is Scholz still fully capable of acting even without the trust of Parliament?

The Chancellor and his government remain in office – in full and not just on an executive basis. According to Article 69 of the Basic Law, the office of the Federal Chancellor and his ministers only ends with the constitution of the new Bundestag – no later than 30 days after the election. If the negotiations on a new government coalition have not yet been completed at this point, the Federal President can ask the old government to continue in office until the new one is sworn in. She is obliged to do this.

Is the Bundestag still able to act after its dissolution?

Yes. It will remain in effect with all its rights and obligations until the new Bundestag meets. Parliament can meet again at any time, it can continue to pass laws, and its committees such as committees of inquiry also continue to exist until the end of the electoral term. This end is reached with the first meeting of the newly elected Bundestag.

Is it realistic that the Bundestag can still achieve something?

Scholz is calling for the passage of several legislative proposals with financial relief before Christmas. “A solidarity of the democratic center on these important issues would be a strong signal,” said the SPD politician after submitting his motion for a vote of confidence. He appealed to the opposition: “Let us act together in the interests of the citizens.”

Is the opposition taking part in this?

Most things are blocked, but individual projects could still work: the Union and the FDP both want to agree when it comes to making the Constitutional Court more resistant to influence and blockage by enemies of the constitution. At least the FDP wants to agree to a law to compensate for the cold progression in income tax and for more child benefit – but it could then fail in the Federal Council because of the Union-led states. A law for the underground storage of climate-damaging carbon dioxide (CO2) could also come – the Union and the FDP have both signaled their approval here.