The situation at a glance: Zelenskyj speculates about ways to peace

In a podcast, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj put forward a mental model for a possible end to the war: immediate NATO membership for his country in exchange for giving up the Russian-occupied areas in eastern Ukraine. “However, our country will only be able to agree to this if certain conditions are met,” said Zelensky in an interview with US podcaster Lex Fridman.

“Legally speaking, NATO is inviting Ukraine, and we do not recognize all other Ukrainian territories, but NATO can operate in the part that is under Ukrainian control – we can agree on that,” Zelenskyj described a possible scenario. But this would only be possible if Ukraine saw a diplomatic way to end the war, he specified.

In order to achieve peace, Ukraine must receive strong weapons packages from the USA and the EU in addition to NATO membership as a further security guarantee. “Because without security guarantees, (Kremlin chief Vladimir) Putin will come back,” said Zelensky. And to further consolidate a possible peace or ceasefire, further sanctions against Russia would be necessary to prevent Putin from further filling his war chest with income from the sale of oil and gas.

Ultimately, US President-elect Donald Trump must persuade the Russian president to agree to a ceasefire. But then strong security guarantees would be necessary. “Because a ceasefire without guarantees is like a carte blanche for Putin,” warned Zelensky. He saw Trump as having a difficult task. “But don’t wait for Putin to want to end the war on his own.”

Lex Fridman is of Ukrainian-Jewish descent and grew up in Moscow during the Soviet era before his family moved to the USA in the 1990s. He is a computer scientist and podcaster. His guests included Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Argentine President Javier Milei.

Heavy fighting in the Kursk region

After a surprise counterattack by Ukrainian units in the Kursk region of Russia, the opposing sides fought heavy fighting until late in the evening. In its evening situation report, the General Staff in Kiev reported a total of 42 individual armed clashes in the western Russian region. “Twelve battles are still ongoing at the moment,” it said.

“The Russians in the Kursk region are very worried because they were attacked from several directions and this came as a surprise to them,” said the General Staff in Kiev, commenting on the latest developments. In the evening, Russian media only reported that drone attacks near Kursk had been repelled. The two sides did not provide any information about losses, successes or changes in the frontline situation.

Last summer, Ukrainian units unexpectedly advanced across the border towards the western Russian city of Kursk and achieved major gains in territory in the process. Russia later brought together around 50,000 soldiers, including around 10,000 fighters from North Korea, for a counteroffensive. By the time the Ukrainians launched a new counterattack, the Russian military had recaptured almost half of the occupied territory in months of heavy fighting.

Syrskyj: Drones are becoming increasingly important

Drones are increasingly becoming an indispensable part of modern warfare, according to Ukrainian commander-in-chief Olexander Syrskyj. “I am also monitoring the dynamics of increasing the effectiveness and survivability of our unmanned systems,” Syrskyj wrote on Telegram after a meeting with the commanders of Ukraine’s drone units.

In December of the previous year alone, the soldiers of the drone units fought 54,000 Russian targets. Almost half of this was due to operations by so-called kamikaze drones.

According to Syrskyj, further Ukrainian units should be reinforced with drone units. “We are finalizing the concept of a separate brigade and its typical structure, and we are on the home stretch,” Syrskyj announced a separate drone brigade.

Ukraine is increasingly relying on drones

The Ukrainian military leadership had already decided in 2023 to increasingly rely on drones in the fight against the Russian armed forces. In October of the previous year, the completion and delivery of one million unmanned missiles in various versions was reported to the army. The unmanned aircraft are not only relatively easy and quick to produce, they can also be used without great risk because soldiers do not have to risk their own lives. Ukraine has been defending itself against the Russian war of aggression for almost three years.