Greenhouse gases: Study: German climate target achieved – but not EU target

According to calculations by the think tank Agora Energiewende, Germany achieved its self-imposed climate target last year – but missed European targets. The reason is a lack of progress in the areas of buildings and transport, according to a report published in Berlin.

Overall, Germany emitted 656 million tons of CO2 equivalents last year – for better comparison, other greenhouse gases are converted into carbon dioxide (CO2). That is almost three percent less than the previous year’s 674 million tons and would represent a new historic low. Emissions would have fallen for the third year in a row. It was said that they were last similarly low in the 1950s. Compared to 1990, German greenhouse gas emissions would have fallen by 48 percent.

Little progress on buildings and transport

At the same time, according to the think tank, the Federal Republic has exceeded its EU climate target by twelve million tonnes of CO2. Demand for more climate-friendly technologies such as heat pumps and electric cars collapsed last year. “A central reason for the lack of structural climate protection in the industrial, building and transport sectors is the uncertainty among households and companies,” explained the director of Agora Energiewende Germany, Simon Müller. This has led to reluctance to invest.

Emissions from both buildings and transport fell by two million tonnes compared to the previous year. But this is mainly due to the mild weather with lower heating requirements and the lower truck traffic due to the economic downturn. Car traffic has increased. The sub-target for the building sector set out in the German Climate Protection Act was exceeded by nine million tonnes of CO2, and for transport it was even 19 million tonnes. Despite the poor economic situation, industrial emissions increased by three million tons of CO2, which Agora attributes particularly to higher consumption of fossil fuels in energy-intensive industries. However, the sector fell short of the German climate target by ten million tonnes of CO2 and thus achieved it.

Germany has set itself the goal of reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 65 percent by 2030 compared to 1990. By 2045, Germany wants to be climate neutral, meaning it will not emit more greenhouse gases than can be stored. According to agreed European guidelines, Germany must reduce its emissions by half by 2030 – but compared to 2005.

Why greenhouse gas emissions have fallen

The authors of the report place the lion’s share of 80 percent of the falling emissions in the energy industry with the switch to renewables. Last year, coal-fired power plants with a total capacity of 6.1 gigawatts were shut down, which corresponded to 16 percent of the installed coal capacity. At the same time, 55 percent of gross electricity consumption was covered by renewables, which accounted for almost half of the increased imports. The mild weather and the weak economy also played a role.

Failure to protect the climate could be costly

The CO2 price is already making refueling and heating with fossil fuels more expensive in Germany. According to experts, there could be price jumps from 2027 onwards if companies have to show rights to CO2 emissions and can trade them with each other.

And missing the EU target would probably cost the federal government billions. “If Germany tears up its European emissions budget by 2030, there will be a risk of fines being imposed on Brussels,” said Müller. “Although the federal government could buy CO2 emissions rights from other countries, it is unclear how expensive such certificates will be and whether they will even be available to the necessary extent. Germany should not rest on the expectation that other countries will use theirs Exceed goals.”

Germany needs to adapt even better to renewables

The fluctuating generation of energy from wind and sun is a challenge, especially due to so-called dark lulls, in which neither the sun shines nor the wind blows. “Times with a lot of wind and sun lead to a lot of renewable electricity, which can lead to low to negative electricity prices,” said Müller. The bottom line is that this happens more often than dark lulls. “Overall, on an annual basis, the price-reducing effect of such green electricity phases is twice as important as the price peaks during dark periods.”

However, further adjustments are necessary in view of the growing share of renewables: more electricity storage, faster installation of digital electricity meters that make it easier to adjust consumption to price, and incentives for more flexible demand among large industrial consumers.

Private individuals can save by switching electricity providers

Electricity prices on the stock exchanges have fallen significantly compared to the previous year. It also became cheaper for consumers after the high prices of 2022 and 2023. Private households could save several hundred euros with new contracts. There is a mixed picture in industry: for smaller industrial and commercial companies, the electricity price is back at the 2021 level, says Agora. However, large consumers continued to pay significantly more than before the crisis.

From Müller’s perspective, the next federal government should provide incentives for more climate protection. For example, heat pump operators could have to pay less network fees for electricity. The tax regulations could be made more advantageous for electric cars: Small electric cars in particular are even more expensive over their entire lifespan compared to combustion engines, and targeted funding could help here. And with a purchase bonus for used electric cars, more people could afford electric cars.

For the report, Agora Energiewende is based on data from the Energy Balances AG, which extends into the second half of December, supplemented by estimates for the remaining time until the end of the year. The AG Energy Balances is an association of energy associations and research institutes that regularly publishes data on energy production and consumption in Germany.

EU Commission on national climate targets in Europe (English)