Austria’s failure: What can Germany learn from it?

Austria’s Federal President has commissioned the right-wing populist FPÖ to form a government. This is the astonishing, even frightening result of a National Council election and subsequent coalition negotiations in which, despite all the contradictions of the parties involved, there was a final consensus: to prevent precisely that result. The project was a disastrous failure. This complete failure, the magnitude of which can hardly be overestimated, becomes a self-accusation of the broad political center in Austria. But if that can happen there, what about Germany?

Yes, there are many differences between Germany and Austria, between the AfD and the FPÖ. The small Alpine republic is already much further than its big neighbor to the north, although “further” is not to be understood in a positive way. The right-wing populists from the inheritance of Jörg Haider and Heinz-Christian Strache have been an established government party for years, are in coalition with the ÖVP in five federal states and are the state governor (prime minister) in Styria. The FPÖ was also a coalition partner in federal governments several times, but all of them recently collapsed prematurely.

The AfD is still a long way away from all of this, including from becoming the strongest party in Germany. But it is not impossible. Therefore, from a German perspective, the drama of the impending formation of a government in Vienna lies less in its mere occurrence (bad enough), but above all in its timing. There is little room for comparative analyzes in the federal election campaign. But probably for simple slogans. What would suit the AfD most would be to form a government with the FPÖ, which everyone had excluded, and an FPÖ chancellor who no one wanted to elect. The striking conclusion for the AfD would simply be: the impossible is possible. Can one wish for better mobilization?

Currently, the two most important differences between Germany and Austria are the so-called firewall to the AfD – and Friedrich Merz. This may sound surprising, but the two actually belong together. Given a corresponding result and difficult coalition negotiations, no party would come under as much pressure to open up to the AfD as the CDU. And it would be up to Merz to withstand this pressure and not take advantage of a supposed right-of-center majority. The good thing is: You can say a lot against Merz, but not that he gave rise to suspicion of bowing to this pressure in an emergency.

There is now a lot of talk about the fact that the centrist parties must remain able to talk (only Markus Söder will certainly derive from the Austrian situation the suggestion that something like this would happen if the black-green government had previously ruled). But such an ability to talk and form coalitions alone does not create a stable government, which the traffic light in this country has set a first example of. For any coalition, whoever leads it, good governance will mean more than balancing interests. It has to be a promotional tour for the capabilities of the democratic center, at the federal level, but also in states, municipalities and parties. The fact that a fairness agreement between the Union, SPD, Greens and FDP has so far served primarily to accuse the opponent of disregarding it is not a good sign. It is more likely that the number of party members is increasing again. In any case, that would be a desirable form of mobilization.