Why Olaf Scholz warns Trump about Russian methods

The invitation to the Chancellery is given at short notice, the host’s appearance lasts less than five minutes, and questions are not permitted. Olaf Scholz wants to say something briefly, it’s actually a matter of course that the Chancellor speaks to the cameras. What is noteworthy is the unnamed but clear addressee of Scholz’s spontaneous message: Donald Trump, the designated US President.

“The inviolability of borders is a fundamental principle of international law,” the Chancellor begins, first talking about Russian President Vladimir Putin, who broke this principle with his war of aggression against Ukraine. “This principle applies and is a foundation of our peace order,” emphasizes Scholz. Then follows the central sentence: In conversations with other European heads of state and government, “a certain lack of understanding became clear when it comes to current statements from the USA.” The principle of the inviolability of borders applies to every country, “regardless of whether it is in the east of us or in the west”.

Or, in other words: Scholz warns Trump about Russian methods. Reminds not only the Russian president, but also the future US president, of international law. Downright reprimands him, which is “the core of what we call Western values.” A remarkable event, in many ways. But why all this – and why now of all times?

In the short winter election campaign until the new election on February 23rd, Scholz wants to position himself as a determined and prudent statesman who relies on balance and reason instead of muscle flexing and going it alone. Wants to present himself as an experienced leader who always keeps a cool head. An erratically acting power politician like Trump should come in handy for the Chancellor.

Almost two weeks before he took office, he had presented crazy scenarios in a press conference, for example by renewing his interest in the island of Greenland, which belongs to Denmark, and the Panama Canal. Trump did not rule out using economic or even military pressure.

Trump also suggested that NATO partners invest five percent of their economic output in defense in the future. During the election campaign, the US President-elect had already promised what he saw as a defaulting ally that he would otherwise abandon them to the Russian President’s fantasies of omnipotence.

As in his first term in office, Trump did not skimp on threats in order to emphasize his interests. Either way, there was great excitement, even in Germany, where the future financing of the two percent target is already controversial – even though the war has returned “to the heart of Europe,” as Scholz says. It was clear that the Chancellor had to behave somehow and at some point. The way Scholz takes on Trump is revealing. And tried to work out the contrast to him.

Starting with the setting: Trump laid out his confusing demands in a 70-minute press conference, making a real show of it from his private estate in Mar-a-Lago in the US state of Florida. Scholz limited himself to a three-minute appearance in the Chancellery. The appearance was scheduled at such short notice that many journalists didn’t make it to the press conference in time.

This is apparently also a message that comes from Scholz’s appearance: Mar-a-Lago and the Chancellery are not only 7,900 kilometers apart as the crow flies – the political distance between the political redneck Trump and Scholz could hardly be greater, and the same goes for you Understanding of politics.

Scholz says a “decisive and prudent” response must be made to the fact that the security situation in Europe will be very tense for the foreseeable future. Based on a common threat situation, it is precisely determined which military efforts are necessary. This can be understood as an indirect rejection of Trump’s demand to increase defense spending to five percent, which Scholz incidentally describes as arbitrary.

Clear edge, but in solidarity with European partners and with a cool head: This is how Scholz’s statement was framed by his SPD shortly afterwards. It is good that the Chancellor “took the initiative” and discussed the latest statements by the next US President with European heads of state and government, said SPD parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich star. What is important is a Europe that acts sovereignly and collectively – “especially because there is a fear that the US government will perform its role unreliably and impulsively in the future.”

The SPD parliamentary group leader Mützenich sees the Chancellor as a counter-model, emphasizing that an experienced and competent German head of government is of “outstanding importance”. What resonates between the lines is that Friedrich Merz, the Union’s candidate for chancellor, has little to no experience of this so far. It’s an election campaign.

Scholz did not address the future US President by name and refrained from using sharp rhetoric in his short statement. Nevertheless, Trump could take the warning as an affront, especially the indirect comparison to Russian ruler Putin. And launch a verbal counterattack.

This could possibly even contribute to Scholz’s image, which he is apparently trying to cultivate. However, such a skirmish would probably not be beneficial for German-American relations (under Trump). The Chancellor is obviously accepting the risk. According to current surveys, CDU leader Friedrich Merz only has to wait a few weeks before he can invite himself to the Chancellery at short notice.