Israel versus Iran: Expert sees growing danger of war in the Middle East

The consequences of an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities would reach far beyond the Middle East. “That would bring Russia and China onto the scene, because such an attack would change the international power structure,” says Christian Mölling, director of the Bertelsmann Foundation’s “Future of Europe” program, in the new episode of star– s “The Situation – International”. “Israel cannot control this alone. In the event of an Israeli attack, the US would have to step in and keep these actors in check. Otherwise we will end up in a completely different conflict formation.”

Despite these risks, the security expert sees a growing threat of war in the Middle East shortly before Donald Trump takes office as the new US President. Iran has been severely weakened by the latest developments in Lebanon and Syria. “It has lost almost all of its deputies. They can no longer appear before the king like the peasants.” In addition, the Israeli Air Force severely decimated Iran’s air defenses after the Iranian attacks on Israel in April and October 2024. The situation offers Israel the opportunity to set back Iran’s nuclear program by years or decades with an attack.

The USA is apparently counting on the possibility that the weakened regime in Tehran could use the transition phase between the Biden and Trump administrations to quickly build bombs. According to a report in the New York Times, current President Joe Biden submitted updated plans for a US military strike against Iran in mid-December in order to be prepared for this eventuality. For the Iranian regime itself, the decision to build the atomic bomb would be a mixed blessing, says security expert Mölling. “A nuclear bomb puts them in a different game. But that doesn’t mean they suddenly have all the cards in their hand.”

International crisis diplomacy could certainly play a role in this tense situation, said Mölling, “but not in a romantic way.” A lot depends on the question of how the USA behaves after Donald Trump took office on January 20th. Mölling believes it is likely that the new US president will come to the negotiating table “with a big stick.” “I think that you can suddenly talk to each other about a lot of things and show the options and consequences if one or the other happens.” The military options that Israel has created by eliminating Iran’s air defenses are “an asset that the USA can exploit.”