Olaf Scholz: Why the show party conference will be revealing

The script leaves little room for big surprises; the Social Democrats only want to allow themselves five hours to reassure themselves and then go back to their constituencies. After all, there is an election campaign, the time until the new elections on February 23rd is extremely short and the gap to the Union is still worryingly large.

In this respect, this extraordinary federal party conference poses the extremely important question for Olaf Scholz, Chancellor and, after this Saturday, the SPD’s officially elected candidate for Chancellor: What is the motivation of his comrades to go into the “open battle” for him , which opened up after the traffic lights went out prematurely? And how genuine is the support?

Support was not particularly strong after the coalition collapse, i.e. until a few weeks ago. First the base rebelled against the unpopular chancellor, then even influential federal politicians rebelled, sometimes out of sheer panic about their own future. With Popularity Minister Boris Pistorius you have better chances. As is well known, Scholz saw things differently, sat out the uprising and was therefore correct in assuming that his opponents were afraid of their own courage.

It is important to remember these circumstances in order to classify this SPD party conference, although actually only the final formalities are being clarified. Because of course the 600 delegates who will officially elect Scholz as candidate for chancellor and decide on the election program will avoid any overly obvious disharmony. Given its unfortunate starting position, the SPD simply cannot afford to create indecision, especially since any slight resistance to its weakened candidate for chancellor would further weaken him.

Instead, unconditional unity should be demonstrated at the official coronation mass. A show party conference. The nuances in the semi-hidden are probably more revealing.

For example, Scholz should be nominated as candidate for chancellor by a show of hands, not in a secret ballot. Officially, because it’s a boring factual question, you just nominate the Chancellor as the candidate for Chancellor – it’s nothing special, it’s happened before. That’s true too. However, the suspicion arises that the aim may be to prevent a vote result that could not only look advantageous for Scholz.

In light of the past few weeks, the vote by show of hands seems like a disciplinary measure. Delegates who reject Scholz would have to publicly acknowledge this – visible to everyone, including the media representatives present. This increases the inhibition threshold, but is associated with a residual risk: every brave show of hands against Scholz carries particular weight.

It is unlikely that a significant number of comrades will expose themselves in this way. Nevertheless, Scholz faces a huge challenge. With his party conference speech – the emphasis is on party – he can either electrify the SPD, for himself and the election campaign. Or paralyze. Scholz has to prove that he has taken up the fight that currently seems hopeless and has a reliable plan on how he can turn it in his favor. Difficult enough. The fact that Scholz is currently trying to position himself as a statesman with clear principles compared to the political redneck Donald Trump could be a first indication. Especially since words are the only thing the Chancellor can do without a Chancellor majority.

The struggle over terminology shows, among other things, how central their program is to the Social Democrats and how nervous the Scholz camp is. There are said to be around 90 amendments to the government program. Negotiations were held until recently, for example, as to whether “basic child protection” should continue to be called that – or whether the term should be deleted. The SPD left wanted to hold on to him because he was established. The Scholz camp reportedly argued that the term had been “burnt.” Contaminated, so to speak, by the traffic light disputes that led to the project’s dismal failure. The compromise can be heard: The term should be in the program – but separate from the traffic light project. “These are further important steps for us in terms of our basic child security,” it is apparently said after a lengthy explanation of child and family policy.

The central problem for Chancellor candidate Scholz remains the difficult dual role in which he takes part in the election campaign for his party. As Chancellor, he not only stands for experience and competence, as the SPD is trying to frame him, but also for the premature end of a dysfunctional government and the status quo. Many voters are not thinking about the gas crisis, which was actually confidently averted by the traffic lights after the Russian war of aggression, but rather about the acute economic downturn and the effects on their wallets.

In order to be successful on February 23rd, Scholz must also credibly stand for a new start and at least shake off the inglorious episodes of the traffic light years. The appearance of the top candidate will show how this will succeed. The SPD twist needs a huge plot twist, otherwise it could end badly in the election.