Why the Gaza ceasefire deal could fail now

According to Israeli information, the final obstacles have been removed in the negotiations for a ceasefire in the Gaza war. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was informed by his negotiating team that an agreement had been reached on the release of the hostages held by the Islamist Hamas, the head of government’s office said on Friday morning.

Netanyahu had ordered that the security cabinet be convened later in the day, it said in a statement early in the morning. The government will meet at a later date to approve the agreement, it said. According to information from the Times of Israel, the government’s vote is scheduled for Saturday evening.

The mediating state of Qatar had actually already announced an agreement between Israel and the Islamist Hamas on a ceasefire on Wednesday, in the course of which hostages would be released in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. According to Israeli information, however, there has recently been anger over detailed questions. Netanyahu accused Hamas of trying to extract last-minute concessions. According to media reports, it was about which Palestinian prisoners – including convicted terrorists – would be released in return for the hostages. Hamas had rejected the allegations.

According to the agreement announced by Qatar on Wednesday evening, the ceasefire will come into force on Sunday at 11:15 a.m. CET. However, according to the Times of Israel, a spokesman for Netanyahu said opponents of the multi-stage agreement within the Israeli government must have 24 hours to submit a petition to the country’s Supreme Court. That would mean that the ceasefire would only come into force on Monday – a day later than planned.

Netanyahu’s right-wing and ultra-religious coalition partners reject compromises with Hamas. One of them, Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, threatened to leave the government if it agreed to the ceasefire agreement. An agreement would enable the terrorist groups in Gaza to reposition themselves and once again become a threat to the residents of southern Israel, he criticized.

Ben-Gvir leads the right-wing extremist Ozma Jehudit (Jewish Force) party. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, head of the Religious Zionism party, could also speak out against the ceasefire agreement. Supporters of the ultra-right camp demonstrated against the agreement on Thursday evening in Jerusalem with sit-ins at several street intersections. The police said they arrested three demonstrators. However, it is certain that the security cabinet and the entire government will ultimately approve the agreement.

The ceasefire in the war, which has been going on for more than 15 months, will initially last for 42 days. During this time, 33 of the 98 remaining hostages held by Hamas are to be released. In return for this, according to Israeli sources, hundreds of Palestinian prisoners will be released from Israeli prisons. Israel’s military should withdraw from the densely populated areas of Gaza.

During this phase, the sides negotiate the concrete steps of the subsequent phases, which should lead to the complete withdrawal of the Israeli military from Gaza, the release of the last hostages and Palestinian self-rule in the Gaza Strip. If no agreement is reached, the war could continue.

For now, the fighting in the sealed-off coastal strip continues unabated. Since Qatar announced a ceasefire, 86 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli attacks across the coastal area, according to a spokesman for the Hamas-controlled Civil Defense. Accordingly, the vast majority of victims were in the northern city of Gaza. According to information that cannot be independently verified, the dead include minors and women.

“The State of Israel is committed to achieving all the goals of the war, including the return of all of our hostages – both living and dead,” Netanyahu’s office said on Friday night.

Meanwhile, an Israeli negotiating delegation is traveling to the Egyptian capital Cairo today. The Israeli portal “walla.co.il” reported that the modalities of opening the Rafah border crossing would be discussed there. The checkpoint on the border between Egypt and the sealed-off coastal area has been closed since May last year. However, it is of central importance for supplying the needy population in Gaza. Egypt, along with Qatar and the United States, is acting as a mediator in the war that has been going on for more than 15 months.

US President-elect Donald Trump called for the release of hostages in the Gaza war before his inauguration on Monday. “This had better be done before I take the oath of office,” Trump said in a broadcast by US podcaster Dan Bongino. The Republican will be sworn in as the 47th President of the United States on Monday in Washington.

Trump once again claimed that without his influence no agreement at all in the conflict would have been reached. “If we hadn’t intervened, the hostages would never be released.” He added: “I’m not looking for recognition. I want to get these people out.”

The war was triggered by the unprecedented massacre by Hamas and other extremist groups on October 7, 2023, in which around 1,200 people were killed in Israel and more than 250 were abducted to the Gaza Strip. Israel responded with attacks against Hamas in Gaza, killing more than 46,700 people and wounding more than 110,200 others, according to Palestinian figures. The figures, which cannot be independently verified but are considered credible by the United Nations, do not distinguish between civilians and fighters.