Bundestag election: Insa survey sees Union at 29 percent – SPD unchanged

Five weeks before the federal election, the Union fell below the 30 percent mark in an Insa survey. As the institute for “Bild am Sonntag” determined, the CDU/CSU now stands at 29 percent – that’s one point less than in the survey from Saturday last week. The Union last fell below the 30 percent mark at Insa in April 2024.

The AfD remains the second strongest force in the new survey with 21 percent (minus 1 point). The SPD (16 percent) and the Greens (13 percent) maintain their values ​​from the previous week. The Sahra Wagenknecht alliance achieved 7 percent (plus 1 point), the Left reached 4 percent (plus 1 point). 5 percent of those surveyed would vote for one of the other parties (minus 1 point). With 5 percent, the FDP just about reached the hurdle for entry into the Bundestag (plus 1 point).

No majority for black-red coalition

Insa boss Hermann Binkert sees a connection between the weakening Union and the increase in the FDP. “The FDP has become somewhat stronger. This is at the expense of the Union because there are large overlaps within both party supporters. But that also makes it difficult for black and yellow to achieve their own majority because both parties are courting the same groups of voters, he said “Bams.” According to these numbers, it’s not even enough for a coalition between the Union and the SPD. “It would take either the Greens or the FDP to achieve a government majority,” said Binkert.

Election surveys are generally always subject to uncertainty. Among other things, weakening party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. In principle, surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the election outcome. The federal election is on February 23rd.