Ukraine war: Military expert sees dangers in a ceasefire

In the event of a ceasefire in the Ukraine war, Ukrainian military expert and analyst Olexander Kovalenko expects Russia to build up its military on a massive scale. Within a year, Moscow could expand its military potential, Kovalenko was quoted as saying by the Unian agency. But this threatens the classic scenario of a third world war.

Russia could expand all components of its armed forces – especially tanks, artillery and missiles – without hindrance within twelve months. In addition, increasing numbers of infantry are expected – up to 1.2 million men. If Moscow and Pyongyang continue to cooperate, up to 50,000 soldiers from North Korea could be expected as reinforcements, he said. “This accumulation will be many times higher than what was available to the Russian occupation forces on February 24, 2022 (at the beginning of the offensive against Ukraine).”

Warning of the third world war and criticism of the West

This could open up opportunities for Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin to advance into Europe, for example through the so-called Suwalki Corridor, the border area between Poland and Lithuania, to Kaliningrad. “Few people talk about it, but this plan by the Russian military leadership already existed in 2022,” Kovalenko said. The Russian plans to begin the attack in 2022 also included an advance in the south of Ukraine via the port city of Odessa towards Moldova.

In Kowalenko’s opinion, a forced ceasefire in Ukraine could only bring Europe closer to World War III. “In a strange way, the foresight of Western leaders fails, and no one sees what can happen after a year of ‘silence of arms,'” Kowalenko said. “Any peace with an undefeated enemy leads to an even greater war.”

Russian experts argue similarly against a ceasefire. They warn that the West could make Kiev even stronger by supplying weapons and training Ukrainian soldiers and then inflict a strategic defeat on Moscow. They point out that the West used the Minsk peace agreements concluded a good ten years ago to strengthen Ukraine militarily. Ukraine has repeatedly emphasized that Russia must be defeated in a way so that it can never attack another country again.