Survey on the federal election
Union slips, SPD catches up with AfD
A month before the federal election, a survey shows that party preferences are changing. However, almost a third of those eligible to vote are still undecided.
Around a month before the federal election, the Union’s lead in a YouGov survey is narrowing slightly, while the SPD is catching up and moving into second place alongside the AfD. The CDU and CSU fell by two percentage points to 28 percent compared to the previous week, according to the institute’s representative survey of 1,858 eligible voters. The AfD also loses two points and ends up at 19 percent. The SPD gains one point and is now also at 19 percent.
The Greens have gained one point to currently 15 percent, their highest YouGov value since April 2024. There is no movement among the smaller parties on the Sunday question: the BSW is currently in the Bundestag with 6 percent, the FDP and the Left fell with 4 each percent out.
This would be enough for a coalition between the Union and the SPD, but not for a coalition between the Union and the Greens. Other purely mathematically possible options are virtually impossible politically.
Surveys suffer from shorter-term voting decisions
However, election surveys are generally subject to uncertainty, for example due to weakening party loyalty and increasingly short-term voting decisions. The data collected only shows the opinion at the time of the survey and is not a forecast of the election outcome. In recent surveys by other institutes, the Union was at 29 to 31 percent, the SPD at 16 and the AfD at 19 to 21.5 percent.
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Almost a third of those eligible to vote have not yet made a final decision. 30 percent of all eligible voters surveyed responded accordingly to YouGov.
According to the survey, these undecided people obviously have several motivations. 79 percent of them do not feel adequately represented by any party. 75 percent would like to wait and see further developments. 70 percent feel they are not informed enough. Only 40 percent say that the positions of the parties are too similar to make a decision; for 45 percent this is not the case.
DPA
tkr
Source: Stern
I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.
