Escalation in the Ostkongo: Why do rebels want to control the Ostkongo?

The conflict in the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo is dramatically escalated. The rebel militia M23 has entered the strategically important provincial capital Goma in North-Kivu. It is currently unclear who controls the city. UN employees report corpses in the streets. Hundreds of thousands of people are on the run. In other areas of the Eastern Congo, the rebels are already in power – a region with considerable undeveloped minor treasures. The most important questions and answers to the conflict:

Who are the M23 rebels and what do you want?

Among the estimated a hundred militias in the Congo, the M23 is one of the most powerful. She has been fighting Congolese government troops and allies with her for years to secure access to soil treasures. It also wants to be recognized as a political group and builds government structures in the areas that it controlled.

For about two years it has been controling large parts of the eastern province of North Kivu and especially mining in the region. Here, some of the most rarest and most valuable metals in the world – Coltan, Gold, Nickel, cobalt and copper – are broken down in large quantities. In the past few weeks, the M23 has had extensive regional profits.

Why is the attack on Goma right now?

The current intensification of the conflict with the attack of the M23 on Goma is part of the strategy of the rebels to force the government in Kinshasa to negotiate, says Andrew Smith, the Africa Analyst of Risk Council Verisk Maplacroft, Andrew Smith. So far, President Félix Tshisekedi has refused to negotiate with the militia. A central concern of the M23 for such negotiations is the improvement of the political and social conditions of Tutsi minority in the Eastern Congo, which in its opinion is discriminated against.

The M23 chose the time of the attack on Goma, says Jakob Kerstan, the state director of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Kinshasa. “The western community is currently busy with other conflicts. The US department for Africa is not yet occupied, so it is not really capable of acting.”

What role does the neighboring country play Rwanda?

Rwanda is also interested in the raw material wealth of the Ostkongo. Tshisekedi’s government accuses the neighbor to support the M23 logistically and financially. The independent UN expert council for the Congo assumed at least 3,000 to 4,000 Rwandic soldiers in the Eastern Congo at the end of 2024. However, Rwanda denies to support the rebels.

Could there be a war between Rwanda and the Congo?

Relations between the two countries have been tense for decades. According to a total of six million people died in the two “Congo wars” – from 1996 to 1997 and from 1998 to 2002 – between the Congo and Rwanda. The experts disagree about whether there could be a third war: While Smith classifies the risk of renewed intergovernmental conflict as high, Kerstan, Kinshasa is conscious, militarily no chance against the much smaller but much better equipped and to have Rwanda trained military.

Who tries to convey in the conflict?

Regional efforts to settle the conflict are great. The East African community, chaired by Kenya President William Ruto Will, places between Rwanda and the Congo. Ruto has already assured the support of France and the USA. South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa, who is one of the best political negotiators on the continent, also contacted Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame to start negotiations for a ceasefire.

Tshisekedi has held a crisis meeting with representatives of the African Union, but has not yet publicly commented on how he wants to react to the difficult setback through the current advance of the M23.

Why are the United Nations involved?

The UN mission Monusco has been stationed in the country since the end of the last War of Congo to protect the civilian population. As one of the largest peace missions with more than 14,000 employees – the majority of military staff – Monusco has a special intervention brigade in order to take militarily against armed groups. Regional troops of the development community of southern Africa (SADC) also support the UN mission.

However, the previous record of the operation is considered mixed. Monusco has contributed to stabilizing certain regions, but the security situation remains tense in many parts of the country, armed groups are still active. Many Congolese accuse Monusco of not sufficiently responding to the continued violence and the resulting humanitarian crisis. There are also reports on human rights violations committed by blue helmets in the Congo.

Why do demonstrators attack messages in Kinshasa?

Angry demonstrators attacked several western and African messages in Kinshasa after the M23’s advancing in Goma. It is not the first time that such attacks occur in the capital. Similar violent protests occurred in the previous year. The demonstrators accuse Western governments of not using their influence on Rwanda in order to contain the rebel attacks in the East Congo.

How is people in Goma?

The inhabitants of Gomas, who could not flee from the city of the million, have been entrenched in their houses for days. Electricity and water supply have been interrupted since the attack, the Internet only works sporadically. Reports of looting and increasing crime circulate on social media. Since the outbreak of thousands of prisoners from a prison on Monday, the security situation in the city has deteriorated.

Even before the M23 attack, the humanitarian situation in Goma and the surrounding area was precarious. Hundreds of thousands of displaced areas from competitive areas in the provincial capital have been looking for refuge for years. The refugee camps are overcrowded. Access to food, water or medical care was already extremely critical before the current crisis.