Bundestag election: SPD crashes in the survey – AfD places strong

Three and a half weeks before the Bundestag election, the SPD is significantly in the voting favor after a survey by the opinion research institute YouGov, while the AfD can significantly increase. In the Sunday question, the Social Democrats of Chancellor Olaf Scholz decrease by four percentage points to 15 percent. The value for the AfD, on the other hand, increases by four points to 23 percent. It is the second strongest force behind the Union, which increases by one point to 29 percent. In other surveys, CDU/CSU come to 30 percent or more.

The second government partner, the Greens, also lose two percentage points and would come to 13 percent at Yougov if the Bundestag election were the next Sunday. The FDP drops by one point to 3 percent, while the left increases by one point to 5 percent and would therefore be represented in the next Bundestag. This also succeeded in the Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht with unchanged 6 percent.

Topic migration moves up to urgency scale

The survey was carried out from January 24th to 27th and thus after the knife attack of Aschaffenburg on January 22nd and the following day of the Union faction leader Friedrich Merz to tighten the migration policy. Migration is now an important topic for 36 percent of those surveyed after 23 percent a week before. According to YouGov, this is now the most important issue for voters of almost all parties that politicians should take care of.

Election surveys are generally always affected with uncertainties. Among other things, waning party bindings and more and more short -term election decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes the weighting of the data collected. Basically, surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not forecasts on the election outcome.