Donald Trump’s customs wars – how do you threaten Germany?

While Germany is practicing in domestic political battles, US President Donald Trump mobilized the big trade war against allies at the weekend. He imposed a custom of 25 percent on all imports from Canada and Mexico. Trump announced on Saturday in an interview with “C-Span” that similar tariffs against the EU would definitely “come”. The EU’s behavior is a “hideousness”. The EU would have over advised the United States with a commercial balance sheet surplus of over $ 300 billion.

Trump is hardly impressed that the EU surplus with the calculation of services is a lot lower. It is now clear: Trump confirms the worst fears because he is much more determined than in the first term. The emergency is the highest risk level. Especially for the economically battered Germany, a lot is at stake: the United States is our largest trading partner outside of Europe and Germany has one of 67 billion euros.

The brutality and lawlessness of the procedure against Canada and Mexico should be scared. Trump himself negotiated the current free trade agreement with the two countries during his first term. Now he covers them with tariffs. As a reason, he specifies the uncontrolled border through the migrants and the drug fentanyl to the USA. At Canada, this is clearly an excuse: less than one percent of migrants and the fentanyl can come to the USA via Canada.

Trump needs the pretext to be able to use an emergency statute for the imposition of the tariffs – similar to its predecessor George W. Bush, alleged mass destruction weapons in order to break a war against Iraq. The trade between the USA and Canada is also compensated for if you calculate the oil that the United States willingly imported from Canada due to the price advantage.

The real reasons for tariffs against America’s closest alliance partners Canada seem to others. Trump wants to fill up the state coffers with the tariffs because the extremely high budget deficits endanger its tax reduction plans for the rich. He also wants to redirect industry investments in the USA. And he wants to make Canada compliant politically through economic strangulation. At the weekend, Trump repeated his endeavor to make Canada the 51st state of the United States.

The Canadian researcher Roland Paris calls Trump’s approach that of an “hostile power”. He sees a turning point. Paris does not exaggerate. Instead of being the West of the West, the USA is practicing in Trump. Trump’s demands on the Panama Canal and Greenland fit into the picture.

This should shake fundamental assumptions about the relationships with the United States and wake up Germany’s campaigner. Some have lulled out that Trump did not cancel NATO in the first ten days and accused Ukraine of Putin. Instead, the alarm bells should ring. Germany has to prepare for a trade war against Trump and learn from Canada’s determined reaction. It is by no means sufficient in response, as CDU boss Merz from a free trade agreement with the United States. As desirable as such an agreement would be – it is currently pure dream dancing. And as the examples of Canada and Mexico show: Even a free trade agreement does not protect against Trump’s assault.

What helps is maximum EU unity. The good thing is that Trump can split Europe less easily in trade questions because it is the responsibility of the EU Commission and unanimity, unlike sanctions against Russia, is not necessary. Germany has an important role in making maximum unity. We should learn from Canada where liberal government and conservative opposition pull together. Scholz, Merz and Habeck should represent a common position and support the EU Commission’s determined procedure against Trump’s threats.

Secondly, Europe should continue to negotiate with Trump without illusions to avert a trade war through a deal, for example by increasing weapons or LNG purchases in the USA or a common procedure for unfair trading practices of China. Brussels should make it clear to the Trump government that a trade war against the EU only leads to strengthening the pro-Beijing forces in the EU. Spain’s government, for example, already has a common cause with XI in response to Trump.

Third, we should prepare a robust answer as well as Canada (and Mexico). Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced 25 percent of US goods worth over $ 100 billion. In addition, he provides for restrictions, for example, when exporting for US production.

This makes Canada clear: you hurts us, but we can also hurt you in a way that drives inflation upwards and has a negative impact on the economic situation, especially in Pro-Trump countries. And we are ready to accept high costs. The hope is to move Trump to a withdrawal of tariffs through the economic costs at home. After all, he promised low inflation and a booming economy.

The EU Commission has already prepared a list of goods for counter-duties, which could be sensitive to the US economy, especially in Trump-friendly countries. Keeping through this answer, if Trump continues to escalate and also threatens to security, will be difficult for Germany and Europe. The economic suffering in an customs war will be enormous for Germany. This shows how vulnerable Germany’s export fixation is with weak internal demand. It is all the more important that the Mitte parties now agree on a comprehensive package to boost the business that combines the necessary de -bureaucratization with public investments (such as in infrastructure).

In addition, we should now advance the deepening of trade relationships with Latin America, Asia and Africa to shoot alternative markets. Europe in particular should now quickly ratify the EU Mercosur agreement.

Trump’s customs war underlines the end of the United States as a reliable protective power and the need to ensure our own security in Europe. Another reason to finally end the navel show in the election campaign and to focus on the outdoor and security policy realities.