Friedrich Merz presents the Social Democrats in front of a dilemma

Lars Klingbeil doesn’t get out of the shaking of the head more than he listens to Friedrich Merz’s words in the plenum. As the Union’s candidate for chancellor supposedly regrets what has just happened, he also brings the chuzpie to call up the SPD for cooperation after the “taboo break”.

“You don’t believe,” says SPD boss Klingbeil, according to the plenary protocol, “that we are still working with you after the story!”

The CDU and CSU parliamentary group had recently brought a cutting application for asylum policy with votes from the AfD through parliament. A novelty. For the bright horror of the Social Democrats, especially their party leader. A few days later, Klingbeil still shakes his head, metaphorically spoken. But if not everything is deceptive, it is less energetic.

On Sunday, the SPD leader will be confronted in a television interview with his interjection in the plenary. The moderator at “Berlin Direkt” on ZDF wants to know whether a collaboration with the Union is possible again after the election. Klingbeil initially evades, and finally replies when asked: “I can only tell you that the trench on Friedrich Merz has grown.”

This trench could still become a problem for the SPD. For the Social Democrats, the situation is tricky after the “taboo break”. On the one hand, Merz gave them an unexpected gift in the election campaign spurt and aroused new fighting spirit among the stumbling comrades. With all the guns, they are now trying to mobilize against a black and blue fright specter. On the other hand, the Union could be the only power option of the SPD after February 23 if the concentrated outrage about the Merz maneuver should not be reflected in the surveys and further stagnate its own values ​​(15 to 17 percent).

Against this background, party leader Klingbeil, who would probably have a key role in the event of a government formation, should have closed a small step towards Friedrich Merz: a ditch can usually be overcome. But what if this ditch is getting bigger until February 23 because the Social Democrats themselves shovel it themselves – until he can hardly be bridged?

Many Social Democrats find the bulwark to be against fascism as meaningful. It belongs to the party’s DNA. It is also the election campaign that the SPD is currently at risk of losing. So if attack, then now.

The SPD campaign now spreads slogans like “Mitte instead of Merz”, has even secured the corresponding Internet address, and frames the SPD to the fire wall that has become party: “Prevent black and blue majority”. Corresponding posters were also seen on a demonstration on Sunday in Berlin, in which at least 160,000 people took to the streets against a collaboration between the CDU and AfD, including the SPD chairman Klingbeil and Saskia.

The SPD relies on the distrust of Friedrich Merz, fueled it with its slogans itself. The message is clear: The Chancellor Party is stable against the extreme right – subtext: in contrast to the Union – and does not fail to use democratic customs. Chancellor Olaf Scholz believes that Merz is no longer trusted and warns that black and blue majorities have to be prevented.

However, the experimental arrangement is risky. If the SPD overrides in the tone, this could scratch in doubt about its own credibility: if the voters are supposed to be able to trust Merz – why should it suddenly be able to do the SPD?

According to the current encoder, much speaks for a new edition of the grand coalition, i.e. a black and red government. The GroKo is even regarded as the most desirable coalition model, because after the excessive traffic lights, it is apparently romanticized in many heads as a stability factor.

If black and red is actually the only realistic option after the election, the SPD could put pressure on the SPD, say comrades behind the scenes. There is also talk of a dilemma. The intersections to the Union would be increasingly lower, many lack the imagination after the “taboo break” to choose the CDU boss as a chancellor.

Friedrich Merz, an obstacle to a coalition? Alexander Schweitzer, the head of government in Rhineland-Palatinate, was the first SPD prime minister to fed this question into the debate. With his opening to the AfD, Merz made it extremely difficult for his party to find partners after the Bundestag election, Schweitzer told the “Redaktion Network Germany”. The CDU leader broke his word. It is therefore questionable whether there could be a government with him.

This is not a cancellation of a possible coalition with the Union, but the subtle note: A joint alliance would have its price-especially in the case of an SPD election defeat.

Already in the past, the SPD was able to impose far-reaching concessions as a junior partner of the Union, around 2017/2018, when Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier had pushed for a grand coalition after the Jamaica negotiations burst. If the Social Democrats are actually Friedrich Merz’s last chance of becoming chancellor, this should significantly increase the price of a partnership.

The SPD plays on victory, the trench for the Union should therefore not be smaller for the foreseeable future. Maybe after February 23, the comrades threaten a tear test?

In any case, a communicative balancing act could come to the party leadership. What could the bridge look like for a possible cooperation with the Union? How would you get this conveyed, also and especially in your own ranks that you are mobilized against the “Merz-CDU” and the black and blue fright-specter? How could the SPD base be convinced by an alliance with the demonized main opponent?

Either way, the way to a GroKo should be associated with very hard negotiations. However, the Social Democrats could also keep a scenario at the table that Chancellor Scholz mentions in practically everyone of his speeches: in Austria coalition talks failed between conservative, social democrats and liberals. Now the conservatives negotiate with the right -wing populists about a common government.