The first joint appearance of the strong men of the Union after Merz was elected CDU leader: it should be a demonstration of unity. How long will the alliance last this time?
In terms of timing, things could hardly have gone better for the CSU and Friedrich Merz: just three days after his impressive 95.3 percent freestyle as the new CDU boss, the CSU state group can welcome the Sauerlander to the end of their winter retreat in Berlin.
Before the internal deliberations of the MPs with the new party leader and future Union faction leader, Merz and CSU leader Markus Söder want to face the press (2:30 p.m.).
After there were only well-staged pictures of a meeting between the two on a cloud-covered lake in Bavaria in January, it is the first joint appearance of the two strong Union men in front of journalists, from which words will also be heard. The expectations are correspondingly high – also among the CSU deputies.
In the morning, however, the CSU state group first wanted to exchange views with the chairman of the Munich Security Conference, Wolfgang Ischinger. The crisis between Russia and Ukraine is likely to be the focus of attention. In addition, Eon CEO Leonhard Birnbaum and ex-Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn are expected to attend the consultations behind closed doors.
Election campaign 2021 – What divided the black union sisters
It is eagerly awaited how Söder and Merz will present themselves. After Söder lost to Merz’s predecessor, Armin Laschet, in the power struggle for the chancellor candidacy, the relationship between the Union sisters had cooled off considerably. After 16 years of the government of CDU Chancellor Angela Merkel, the Union had fallen into opposition in the federal elections with a historically poor result of 24.1 percent. In addition to Laschet, Söder has long been given a share of responsibility in the CSU because of his many tips against the chancellor candidate. The wounds have not really healed to this day, at best they are scarred.
What is the relationship between Merz and Söders CSU really like?
After Merkel announced in 2018 that she would give up the CDU presidency and Merz applied to be her successor, it was an open secret that many in the CSU were not exactly enthusiastic. At the time, it was said behind closed doors that the 66-year-old Merz was anything but a sign of departure and the future. After Merz became boss of his big sister on the third try, the pitch has changed.
Many in the CSU are happy to say they are relieved that after Laschet there is now an assertive personality at the top of the CDU, which has long been desired, especially in the conservative circles of the CSU. In recent years, quite a few CSU members have repeatedly alienated Söder, who is more progressive in terms of climate protection or women’s quotas, and wished for a compass that was less focused on change.
The first spotlight on the relationship between Merz and Söder was at the CDU online party conference for the election of Merz on January 22nd. Merz expressly included the CSU in an appeal for unity and warned: “What we experienced in the Union in 2021 must not be repeated. And that won’t happen again.” The second sentence could also be understood as a threat. The connected Söder assured: Although the intention in the election campaign was to do it well and together, this was not successful. “We’re sorry. And I’m sorry. And it must and will be different.”
State elections and traffic lights weld the CDU and CSU together
In Berlin, Söder affirmed again on Wednesday: “The year 2021 will not and should not be repeated.” An important reason why the new unity could last longer than with Laschet: Bavaria’s state elections in 2023. CSU state group leader Alexander Dobrindt said he had invited Merz and NRW Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst (CDU) “so that we can make it abundantly clear that the greatest interest of both Union parties is to face the next challenges of the state elections and the federal elections in 2025 together”.
The traffic light as a political opponent also helps to bring the union sisters closer together again. If you have a common opponent, you are less likely to get lost in internal disputes.
Söder under pressure at the CSU base
Even if Söder and the CSU do not appear on a ballot this year, the 2022 state elections in Saarland, Schleswig-Holstein, North Rhine-Westphalia and Lower Saxony in Bavaria will be followed with great attention. Because Söder and the CSU know that only with a strong CDU will they not experience a blue miracle the next year and have the next election bankruptcy.
The CSU is under massive pressure in the Free State, in polls the CSU is bobbing 36 percent below the historically poor result of 2018 (37.2 percent), even the unloved coalition with the Free Voters has long had to worry about a majority. The bad mood also results in Söder’s previous Corona course, which was happy to specify particularly strict measures and bans.
Söder has long since turned around, noticeably often calls for more judgment in the Omikron wave when it comes to conditions and takes a more liberal course. According to the CSU, this goes down just as well with the grassroots as the loud emphasis on wanting to represent the interests of the “little people on the Leberkäs floor” again.
A coalition against the CSU is not yet in sight, but if Söder needs a tripartite alliance to unite a majority in the state parliament, his days at the head of the party and state government would probably be numbered. As loyal as the CSU is to its party leaders in good times, those who cannot guarantee the party’s success should not hope for consideration.
And what about the chancellor candidacy in 2025?
If Merz and Söder are asked about this sensitive point, the answer comes that the question does not arise. In the CDU it can be heard that after Söder’s cross-shots in the federal election campaign, the Bavarian could forget any support for possible new chancellor ambitions. Söder also knows that he must now use all his strength to deliver a good result in “his” state election in 2023. Without a respectable success in Bavaria – nobody seriously believes in a one-man government either in the Free State – there is no question for Söder of higher ambitions.
In fact, no one can predict how the balance of power between the CDU and CSU will be distributed in four years’ time. It cannot be ruled out that Merz, shortly after taking over all power in the CDU with the party and parliamentary group chairmanship, will have to declare that the CDU has lost government power in Saarland, North Rhine-Westphalia and Schleswig-Holstein. That would scratch the image of the 66-year-old very much. Until the federal elections in 2025, the cards in the Union are likely to be reshuffled more often.
Source: Stern
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