Bundestag election
Why is so little in surveys?
Despite the excitement about the migration debates in the Bundestag: big changes cannot be observed in election surveys. An election researcher also sees a reason for this with CDU boss Merz.
From the perspective of election researcher Matthias Jung, the violent debates about the Union’s migration course in the Bundestag have mobilized all political camps – and thus ultimately led to a zero -sum game in the surveys. The protests against the Union are above all a self -assurance for corresponding voters. “But they also create countermobilization that leads to this stability in the surveys as a whole,” said the board member of the research group elections of the German Press Agency.
Union Chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz (CDU) was recently criticized because he had accepted voices of the AfD in the Bundestag in order to enforce his suggestions for a sharper migration course. As a result, several hundred thousand people across Germany took to the streets last weekend to protest against the right and a collaboration with the AfD. But since then – as in the previous weeks – hardly anything has changed in the survey values.
Election researchers see fixed positions
This is no surprise for election researchers Jung: After the attacks in Mannheim, Magdeburg and Solingen, the same discussions about migration were always held. “Therefore, people are definitely defined on this question,” he emphasized. “Those who react very sensitively to crime by migrants or asylum seekers have long been with the AfD.”
Similarly, Stefan Merz, election researcher at Infratest Dimap, commented in the ARD podcast “Interview of the Week”. The situation was “more defined” than before the Bundestag election 2021. The voters had formed their judgment a long time ago. “Theoretically, a lot is possible, but everything suggests that Friedrich Merz will go to the finish on one,” said the election researcher.
Jung: Merz should have bundle dissatisfaction
Despite the poor reviews of the federal government, the Union is not really good as a leading opposition party. “Enthusiasm actually looks different,” said Stefan Merz. For Jung, this is also due to Friedrich Merz, “who should have bundled and bring dissatisfaction with the federal government”. Instead, Merz pushed the Union too much into conservative and ordoliberal positions.
dpa
Source: Stern
I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.
