In the Ukraine conflict, Turkey sits between the chairs – Ankara has good relations with both Kiev and Moscow. Now Erdogan travels to Kiev. What to expect from the visit?
Amid high tensions in the Ukraine conflict, diplomatic efforts to find a peaceful solution continue. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants to fly to Kiev today for talks with his Ukrainian colleague Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
In addition to trade relations, according to Turkish information, the crisis between Ukraine and neighboring Russia should also be discussed. French President Emmanuel Macron also wants to continue to mediate in the conflict with talks. Tensions are also awaited as to how the Kremlin will react to the US-announced transfer of around 2,000 soldiers to Europe.
USA: 2000 soldiers to Europe
Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko has already spoken of a “destructive step”. This narrows the scope for political decisions. In contrast, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg welcomed the planned transfer. This strengthens the deterrence and defense of the alliance. The US Department of Defense had previously announced that it would send around 2,000 soldiers to Europe – 300 of them to Germany. 1700 forces are to be transferred to Poland. In turn, 1,000 American soldiers would be sent to Romania from the Federal Republic.
US President Joe Biden said the troop deployment was in line with what he had told Russian President Vladimir Putin from the start of the crisis. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said there was “no sign of de-escalation.” «We believe that Putin has great military potential. He’s always expanding his options,” Kirby said.
Search for a peaceful solution
Meanwhile, diplomatic attempts to find a peaceful solution to the conflict continue. Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that he would be traveling to Moscow “soon” for a meeting with Putin. However, he did not give an exact date. French President Emmanuel Macron wants to call Putin again this Thursday. A talk with the Ukrainian President Selenskyj is also pending. Macron and Putin maintain close contacts in the conflict because Paris, together with Berlin, has been mediating in the Ukraine conflict for years.
The Frenchman also spoke to Biden on the phone yesterday. According to the White House, both reiterated their support for Ukraine and “high economic costs” in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, the White House slightly changed its choice of words in the Ukraine crisis and no longer wants to speak of an “imminent” Russian invasion of the country. White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said the decision was made to stop using the term because it sends a message that was not intended: “that we know that President Putin has made a decision.”
Putin’s call to Johnson
During a phone call with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Putin criticized NATO for not responding “appropriately to Russia’s legitimate concerns”. This was announced by the Kremlin on Thursday night. Johnson, in turn, warned Putin against invading Ukrainian territory.
With Western reports of more than 100,000 Russian troops deploying near Ukraine, there are fears that the Kremlin is planning an invasion of its neighboring country. Moscow denies that. It is also considered possible that the Russian side wants to stir up fears in order to persuade NATO to make concessions on demands for new security guarantees.
For days there have been high-level talks to prevent a war. Turkish President Erdogan has repeatedly offered to act as mediator between Ukraine and Russia. While Kiev accepted the offer, the reaction from Moscow was rather muted.
Turkey’s political tightrope act
NATO member Turkey maintains good relations with both Ukraine and Russia. Erdogan described a possible Russian intervention as “not realistic” and as a wrong step. Turkey has also repeatedly criticized the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014, much to the Kremlin’s annoyance, and has repeatedly insisted on Ukraine’s independence – also because the Crimean Tatar Muslim minority has historically close ties to its southern neighbor on the Black Sea.
For example, Ankara supplies Kiev with combat drones. In October last year, Kiev used one in the contested east of the country for the first time. As the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) announced on Thursday night, Ukrainian forces threatened OSCE observers in eastern Ukraine to shoot down an organization drone.
The Kremlin recently welcomed talks between Turkey and Ukraine. It is unclear when Erdogan and Putin will meet again. Turkey has a strong interest in good relations with Moscow: Most tourists come from Russia, and Moscow is also the largest supplier of gas. In 2020, almost 34 percent of gas imports came from there.
Turkey’s policy is a balancing act, says Ukraine expert and political analyst Hüseyin Oylupinar. Turkey has an interest in maintaining the status quo in the region. Ankara sees an independent Ukraine as a counterweight to Russia. At the same time, there is no interest in NATO becoming stronger in the region if Ukraine joins.
Source: Stern
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