Sunday question: Insa survey: Union, AfD and SPD lose easy

Before the Bundestag election in two weeks, the three currently strongest political forces lose ground in an INSA survey. Union, AfD and SPD lost one percentage point for the “Bild am Sonntag” compared to the previous week. CDU and CSU are still clearly in front with 29 percent, followed by the AfD with 21 percent and the SPD with 16 percent.

The left, which gains a point and comes to five percent, can grow – so you can hope to move back to the Bundestag. The Greens are still in fourth place with 12 percent. The Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht also stagnates at six percent, and the FDP remains four percent-and thus under the five percent hurdle. The other parties, who now come together to seven percent, are at two points. The data was collected from Monday to Friday of this week.

According to the votes initiated by the Union, two applications and a draft law on immigration limitation in the Bundestag are currently particularly important. The fact that Union Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) had accepted a majority with votes from the AfD had been sharply criticized by the SPD, the Greens and the left, and there were also great demonstrations. So far, the debate has not resulted in a fundamental shift in the surveys.

Surveys mostly quite stable

In two other surveys, the Union was recently able to get one point each: in the ZDF polite barometer it climbed to 30 percent, the AfD lost a point and came to 20 percent. The SPD stagnated at 15 percent – in this elevation with the Greens. The ARD Germany trend also clearly saw the CDU and CSU with 31 percent and a plus of one percentage point. Here the AfD also slightly increased to 21 percent, the SPD unchanged 15 percent.

In a survey by the opinion research institute YouGov, the SPD was able to increase by three points to 18 percent, but the Union remained a stable power with unchanged 29 percent. The second strongest force was also the AfD with 22 percent. In a Forsa raising for RTL/NTV published on Tuesday, the Union lost two points to 28 percent, AfD (20 percent) and SPD (16 percent) remained stable.

Election surveys are generally affected with uncertainties. Among other things, waning party bindings and more and more short -term election decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes the weighting of the data collected. Basically, surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not forecasts on the election outcome.