Friedrich Merz and Olaf Scholz: What is important in TV two-fighter

Is there anything else? The SPD is currently on all guns to shoot its predicament. In a spot, why Friedrich Merz is completely unsuitable as head of government, in another clip that should never come into contact with the trousers’ floor of the Union candidate for the benefit of the country.

Prevent Olaf Scholz, prevent Friedrich Merz-this is one of the central messages of the SPD campaign. So far, this strategy has only been particularly successful.

The challenger goes to the TV duel from ARD and ZDF on Sunday evening (from 8:15 p.m.), at least as a clear survey favorite. In most surveys, the Union of opposition leader Friedrich Merz is still well ahead of Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Who will be better at the duel on TV? Here, too, the incumbent is in advance, only 14 percent think Scholz in forehand, more than twice as many Merz (34 percent). However, the vast majority (41 percent) expect no difference.

Isn’t the duel because it has long been decided?

From the perspective of Olaf Scholz, this quiet suspicion has to be dispersed in particular, at best he does not even let him arise. The Chancellor is likely to stage himself as a Chancellor among the candidates and try to put Merz as a dubious and erratic solitaire, to whom the country should not be entrusted in challenging times.

It remains to be seen whether Scholz gives the statesman or switches to attack. Either way, his goal should be to end up with a hill in front of a million audience against Merz. So far, neither the fight against the right to mobilize his prudent course in the Ukraine War or contradiction against the wide-legged behavior of US President Donald Trump for the SPD Chancellor.

Friedrich Merz should also know that. The Union candidate goes strengthened into the TV duel. His risky decision to allow a majority with AfD and FDP in the Bundestag have not given the CDU an enormous thrust in the surveys, but also no bitter losses: the polarizing migration debate shows hardly any influence on the surveys. Depending on the survey, the Union continues to rank between 28 and 31 percent, the SPD between 15 and 18 percent. In the ARD “Germany trend”, Merz even increased with the satisfaction (plus 4 percent), in the ZDF “Politbarometer” on the chancellor’s question (plus 2 percent)-while Scholz left feathers on both questions.

Merz should therefore be confirmed in his strategy. He is expected to recently promise Scholz to have failed in migration and economic policy to present him as failed as head of government of the broken traffic light coalition-and as a change candidate who gets the country back on track.

Nevertheless, the next 14 days will not be a sure -fire success for Merz, not least the Chancellor party lurks for mistakes that can be exploited to her own advantage. Every smallest lap in the TV duel, the SPD campaign for the quote tile for social networks should be sufficient. The Union candidate is under enormous pressure on the last meters of the short winter election campaign. Does he lose his nerves? Chancellor Scholz could rely on it in TV two-fighter and try to provoke mistakes.

A demonstrable weakness of the Union candidate is his personal values. Only 24 percent of the respondents still consider the CDU chairman to be “trustworthy” (minus six points), such as a representative Forsa survey for star, RTL and NTV resulted in which took place shortly after the coordination slat in the Bundestag. With “sympathetic” it looks even worse at 16 percent (minus eight points).

At the same time, the numbers reaffirm, which showed earlier surveys: Merz has a big deficit in women. This applies especially to young voters. Just ten percent of women under 30 want the CDU boss as a chancellor. In this target group it is significantly behind Habeck (39 percent) and even Scholz (11 percent). However, the older the women interviewed are, the more they would be inclined to choose Merz. 24 percent of the voters over 60 years would vote for Merz. Nevertheless, the value remains significantly among the men beyond 60 (31 percent).

The east-west difference is also interesting. In the case of East Germans, Merz (19 percent) and, above all, Habeck (12 percent) cut off significantly worse than in West Germans. Scholz, on the other hand, can convince more East German (18 percent) than West Germans of (16 percent).

It is still 14 days until the election, exactly two weeks. Who will be sitting in the Kanzlerstuhl in the future? Tonight could also decide that.