Olaf Scholz and the catch -up – does he really believe that?

It was around 11 p.m. on Sunday. After the TV duel with Friedrich Merz, Olaf Scholz stood in the foyer of the television studio, drank a non-alcoholic beer and talked to journalists. First and foremost, he continued to talk to the moderators Sandra Maischberger and Maybrit Illner, who apparently did not accommodate all their questions to the Chancellor in 90 minutes. On the one hand, this was because they also had to ask Merz a few questions. On the other hand, Illner and Maischberger had rolled out the topic of migration for almost half an hour. Otherwise there was no other.

After the show, Maischberger wanted to know from Scholz whether he really believed that he can still catch up with Merz and the Union. The Chancellor replied with a narrow “yes”. I stood behind Sandra Maischberger, but the disbelief, indeed the perplexity, which must have been read in her face, indirectly informed me by the brief interruption of her questionnaire, not visible, rather metaphysical.

Now this answer from Olaf Scholz is nothing new. It has been as little as the surveys for weeks. A social democratic conversation partner recently found the beautiful picture, the steamer SPD stuck in the pack ice of the political mood. Nevertheless, this demonstrative streakability of Scholz had a special dimension on this evening because it was created by a kind of division of the Chancellor.

In the TV duel, a scholz had been experienced that took the balance of his government, firstly, secondly, thirdly; A scholz who insisted on facts and with number argument that Friedrich Merz accused that he refused to realities, in short: a rational chancellor.

After the duel when it came to his chances of the election victory, a Scholz, who did not want to take note of the realities, was experienced in a nutshell, in short: an irrational chancellor. I feel like Sandra Maischberger: How can he be serious?

Martin Schulz, Chancellor candidate of the SPD, once told me about the tunnel in which you go into the election campaign. “You hope,” said Schulz. “New every day.” Especially in the last phase of an election campaign, the rallies are well attended again. “You stand there, see people, the enthusiasm.” But there were convinced supporters, rarely the undecided. Then come the next survey, and again there is no movement in the numbers. Or too little. “And you think you’re crazy. How can that be?”

Scholz seems to be caught a bit in this tunnel. The Chancellor now refers to the Netherlands. Geert Wilders and his right party in 2023 have completely turned the election in the past few days. That’s correct. Wilders PVV became the strongest strength and added 37 seats to actually 37 seats compared to the last survey.

Nevertheless, the Chancellor’s hint is strange to me. I’m afraid that only the irrational Olaf Scholz seriously uses a right -wing populist as a key witness for his confidence, who was able to score with simple messages against a dismissed government, where Scholz himself is the Chancellor of a failed government and has to defend himself to the right -wing populist. After many years in which I have observed it, I am sure that the rational Olaf Scholz knows better.