Russia’s war of attack: USA consider great concessions Kiev to be inevitable

The US government of President Donald Trump has for the first time explained in detail how it imagines an end to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. The Americans consider painful concessions to Kiev inevitably – among other things, the waiver of NATO accession. In addition, the United States largely sees Europeans as a duty to support Ukraine and to secure peace militarily – without American troops.

US defense minister Pete Hegseth presented the performances at a Ukraine meeting in Brussels, where weapon deliveries for Kiev were supposed to be coordinated. He thus confirmed dark premiums from the Ukrainians and Europeans.

The United States message to Ukraine

Last year, NATO of Ukraine had guaranteed at a summit in Washington that its path to membership was irreversible. However, Trump’s government sees it very differently. “The United States does not believe that NATO membership of Ukraine is a realistic result of a negotiating solution,” said Hegseth.

The return to the Ukrainian borders before 2014 is therefore unrealistic from a US perspective. “Pursuing this illusory goal will only extend the war and cause more suffering,” he said.

Ukraine has been defending itself against the Russian invasion for almost three years. The Ukrainian Black Sea Peninsula Crimean had already annexed Russia in 2014. Russia is currently checking a fifth of the Ukrainian state area.

The United States is also not ready to provide soldiers to secure a peace solution. “A permanent peace for Ukraine must contain solid security guarantees to ensure that the war is not flaring up again,” said Hegseth. European and other troops would have to be used for such security guarantees. “No US troops are sent to Ukraine.” He excluded a NATO mission.

The United States message to NATO and Europe

Trump’s government is committed to the transatlantic military alliance, but calls for a different load division among the members. “The United States remain committed to the NATO alliance and the defense partnership with Europe – without any ifs and buts,” emphasized Hegseth. “But the United States will no longer tolerate an unbalanced relationship.” NATO partners would have to invest significantly more in their defense.

And: The European allies would have to take responsibility for security on their continent. Hegseth announced that Europe would have to take the majority of military aid for Ukraine in the future. The United States would have to focus on other threats and challenges – for example, to secure its own limits and prevent a war with China.

What does that mean for Ukraine?

For the Ukraine, Hegseth’s statements are a bitter setback, which has been indicated for a long time. Kiev has never officially given up the goal of withdrawing all areas controlled by Russia, but the Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj and his team recently come to the fore more and more a diplomatic instead of the military solution to the conflict. A factual but legally not recognized Ukrainian waiver has been circulating as a variant for a possible peace solution for weeks.

A waiver of a NATO accession of the unoccupied part of Ukraine, which is now required by Hegseth and now formulated by Hegseth, has also been recognized as a danger in Kiev. Selenskyj tried to counteract this by instead bringing nuclear refusal to the Ukraine through the West. In addition, the Ukrainian head of state said that only the United States can give its country real security guarantees. He obviously does not believe in the Europeans’ assurance.

What does that mean for the Europeans?

For many European partners in Ukraine, the US government’s announcements are confirmed by the worst fears. In Brussels and other capitals, there was already concern that the United States could drastically return and force a peace solution from which Russia could actually result. In the election campaign, Trump had claimed without ceasing that he could end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours – among other things because of his good contacts with Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin.

The US course is particularly problematic because it could also split the EU. In the past few months, Hungary had repeatedly blocked support decisions for Ukraine at European level. Like Trump, Prime Minister Viktor Orban is pushing for quick negotiations.

In addition, it is extremely unlikely that the EU would be financially and militarily able to enable Ukraine to continue the defense against Russia. In Berlin and other European capitals, a Ukraine peace force without US participation has so far been considered conceivable.

The EU is now foreseeable the new dispute over defense investments and possible new debts. A withdrawal of the Americans from Europe is likely to require additional billion dollar investments and many countries are already in debt. So far, new EU debts have been rejected primarily by Germany.

What does that mean for Russia?

One of the declared war goals of Moscow was to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. In this respect, this would be a stage victory, but the Kremlin has other demands that have not yet been addressed by Hegseth. Russia insists on fully checking the areas of Cherson, Donetsk, Luhansk and Saporischschja in autumn 2022. The Ukrainian troops would even have to withdraw far from the current front line.

Moscow also insists on a say in Ukrainian politics, which is expressed, among other things, by the demand for a “denazification of Ukraine”.

Since the United States shows little interest in a further military support from Ukraine, the Kremlin will not have any in negotiations as long as the situation on the battlefield continues to develop in its favor. Instead, Russia could consider further conquests. Charkiw, Odessa and Dnipro, at least before the war, were largely Russian -speaking cities of millions and are often seen as part of the “Russian world” in Moscow.