Bundestag election: Last exit black-red | Stern.de

For Friedrich Merz, everything seems to be much easier than feared. Complicated exploratory talks with different parties about triple coalitions are spared the election winner from the Union. It also works with a partner: the SPD. And there is no alternative because black and green has no majority. Nevertheless, the negotiations will not be a sure -fire success. There are a few high hurdles, but in the end it still has to go somehow.

Because given the steep ascent of the AfD, it is not enough to just rule well this time. In the next few years, the parties of the Democratic Middle are concerned with stopping the rise of parties that are sometimes extremist, such as the AfD and thus preventing democracy from tilting. “This is actually the last cartridge of democracy,” said CSU boss Markus Söder about the government alliance, which was once called a grand coalition.

First hurdle: destroyed trust

The election campaign did wounds that have to be healed. The SPD accused Merz’s broken word and taboo due to a joint coordination with the AfD in the Bundestag. The CDU boss recently struggled sharply against “left-wing spinner” and acted the accusation of the SPD to act like a “mini-trump”. Merz also emphasized again and again: after the election on February 23, February 24th. All democratic parties would then have to be able to talk.

This is the SPD too. Party leader Lars Klingbeil today made it clear that there is no automatism of a government participation: “Whether there is a government formation, whether the SPD enters a government is not clear.”

Klingbeil now wants to be elected to the parliamentary group leader in the Bundestag despite the disastrous election defeat and the SPD leads to the coalition negotiations. You will see whether this works well with Merz. Klingbeil has so far noticed the Union uncomfortably with sharp campaign attacks on Merz.

Second hurdle: differences in content

The biggest sticking point will be migration policy. Merz announced in the election campaign to instruct the Federal Ministry of the Interior on the first day to reject all attempts by illegal entry at the German borders. The SPD considers this not compatible with European law. With his directory competence, Merz would not get through the SPD either: This would provoke a coalition break before the government really started.

The Union also wants to undo several projects of the burst traffic lights such as cannabis legalization and reformed citizenship money. In tax policy, too, the ideas Union and SPD collapsed unchecked. The Union is committed to billions of taxes for companies. The SPD wants a “made in Germany” bonus to take over the state of companies in machines or vehicles.

There are also differences in Ukraine policy: from the delivery of Taurus marching aircraft to the financing of new billion aids. And new challenges could soon come to the government – for example, the question of whether peacekeepers should be sent to Ukraine.

Third hurdle: Personnel line -up and department distribution

It is the slightest problem. In the event of an agreement, the parties themselves decide who they send to the cabinet. At most, there could be wrangling when distributing the departments. The CSU would have interest in the Minister of Defense, in which Boris Pistorius (SPD) – had by far the most popular politician in Germany.

Fourth hurdle: say in the SPD base

In the end there is still a high hurdle on the SPD side: the members. In the end, they should decide on the result of the coalition negotiations in a vote. This hesitates government formation and can also go wrong. However, the previous membership decisions about black and red went well. There was a majority in 2013 and 2018.

The only alternative is not

The probability is great that things are going well this time too. Because the only alternative to the black and red coalition is alternative for Germany – a coalition between the Union and AfD. Both Union and SPD don’t want that. Failure to the negotiations could then lead to a new election after months of hanging. And nobody actually wants that after Germany has almost four months of a minority government that is only partially able to act to a limited extent.