Special summit in Brussels: Europe, Ukraine and the new arms arms

After the scandal with US President Donald Trump in the White House, the Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj is looking back in Europe. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen assured him of continuing support for the “existential struggle” of Ukraine for her sovereignty and territorial integrity at the start of the EU summit in Brussels.

The meeting of the 27 heads of state and government is primarily concerned with the question of how the EU can increase its defense spending in order to further support Ukraine and to significantly improve the European defense capacity. Time is urging that the United States exposed its arms aid for the country attacked by Russia and the trenches between Washington and Kiev became deeper.

The Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that Europe had to accept the challenge of arms. “Europe as a whole is actually able to gain any confrontation with Russia – financially, economically, militarily,” he said. “We are just stronger, we just have to start believing in it, and today it happens.”

However, it was open whether the State Association succeeds in sending a joint signal after the first summit hours in the afternoon. This is mainly due to a Trump friend in the round.

What is the summit about?

Trump and his team have been making it clear for weeks that they want to force negotiations on the end of the Russian attack war – it costs what they want. So far, this has been the case that Trump had the US military aid stop for Ukraine.

Europeans must therefore upgrade – and that massively and quickly. Secret services assume that Russia should be able to start a further war at the latest in 2030. It may only be deterred from this if the EU countries significantly expand their military skills by then. At the moment, many armed forces are in a rather poor condition because defense spending were dropped in the years after the end of the Cold War.

The EU countries largely agree that defense spending must be increased significantly. “Upgrade Europe, spend on defense and deterrence, spend, spend – that is the most important message,” said the Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen on arrival at the meeting.

For many governments, however, the question arises where the money should come from – especially since the additional investment requirement by the EU Commission was recently valued to a high three -digit billion sum of euros and countries such as France and Italy are already in debt.

The EU Commission responsible for proposals and legislative initiatives has created a plan called “Rearm Europe” (such as upgrading Europe) and hopes that he will receive the necessary approval at the EU summit. With several measures, a total of almost 800 billion euros could be mobilized, President Ursula von der Leyen hopes.

According to the agency, there should be an EU loan of up to 150 billion euros – for example, for the purchase of air and rocket defense, artillery systems and drones. According to the authority, the European investment bank (EIB) should also change its rules for lending in such a way that pure armaments projects can also be promoted.

The Commission also suggests that the individual Member States can use a special rule for the EU debt rules for a period of four years in defense issues. This could make new loans for the upgrade without risking an EU deficit procedure.

What does Chancellor Scholz bring to Brussels?

Germany wants a different solution with a view to the debt rules. It must be ensured in the long term “that the states can spend as much for defense as they and their friends and alliance partners consider it right,” said Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Brussels. “And that’s why we have to change the rules in Europe in the long term.”

Scholz ‘demand also has to do with the fact that the Union and SPD in Germany want to create huge scope for defense spending. Defense spending above a certain limit should be exempted from the debt brake. If there is only one temporary exception at the EU level, Germany would probably always risk criminal proceedings in perspective.

In Brussels, the planned loosening of the German debt brake is understood as a turning point. So far, Germany with Scholz has not been the focus of the diplomatic efforts for peace in Ukraine and the expansion of the continent’s defense capacities. Great Britain and France are now in charge of Ukraine at a European peace plan.

What are the difficulties?

It is difficult to assert further EU support to Ukraine that far-reaching decisions of the community of states have to be made unanimously and, in particular, with Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a politician who is entirely in Trump.

Orban has already announced a blockage of support decisions for Ukraine for the summit. His Slovak counterpart Robert Fico also signaled resistance to a joint declaration of summit in favor of Ukraine. Both support Trump’s course in the Ukraine conflict and maintain close relationships with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin.

Could there still be further support from the EU?

Among other things, further commitments for military aid are planned, which could also be given on a voluntary basis in the event of a Veto of Hungary. First of all, it is about the fact that Ukraine does not have to go into possible conversations with Russia in a position of weakness – and it is also prepared for the situation that Putin doesn’t really want to negotiate.

In addition, in the EU it is advised on how Russia could be held after a possible ceasefire to attack Ukraine again. In addition to the international troop presence, which is primarily considered by France and Great Britain, is the so-called porcupine strategy (Porcupine Strategy). For example, it would mean delivering Ukraine weapon systems with which it could relieve significantly more in the event of new Russian aggression than before. This could also include German Taurus marching aircraft, which Chancellor Scholz has always denied Ukraine.