Donald Trump makes a surprising range of peace: Kut Putin?

You can scold the new US administration under Donald Trump as you want, but one thing can be surprised. The fact that the meeting between Americans and Ukrainians in the Saudi Arabian Dschidda ended not only with a friendly joint final photo, but also with an offer over a 30-day ceasefire to Moscow and the resumption of arms deliveries to Ukraine came as a surprise to all observers.

For Europeans who, according to the American announcements of the past few weeks, set the course for ensuring security on the European continent without American support.

For the Ukrainians, who, particularly after the expulsion of their president from the White House, almost two weeks ago and the hiring of the support with intelligence information and weapons now assumed that Trump is more on Putin’s side than on the Ukraine side.

However, the result from Dschidda has to be particularly surprising for Moscow: in the KREML, the cork bangs in the past few weeks in the past few weeks in the past few weeks in view of the estrangement between Europeans and Americans – and President Wolodymyr Selenskyj.

But now the ball suddenly lies in the field of Vladimir Putin, as it was expressed in Dschidda US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Should the Russian president refuse to offer him at first glance, it would no longer be the Ukrainians who-from a US perspective-look like renitates and not too compromises, but the Russians.

There is a lot at stake for the Kremlin at this moment, because Trump has opened the door to Russia: partially withdrawal of the sanctions, a return to the group of G8, economic cooperation and cooperation in international questions. In short: Russia would no longer be an enemy country for the United States, but a partner at eye level.

That against the offer. In particular, the immediate resumption of military support from the Americans is seen there as unacceptable. They want to wage war until Ukraine is destroyed or subjected.

But the “War Party” is not the only force that exists in the Kremlin. After three years of confrontation, there is a lot of interest in setting at least the course towards normalization towards the West.

In view of the moodiness of the American President, Putin needs to know: If he refuses to offer Dschidda, he makes Trump an opponent, lets Europeans and Americans and Ukrainians move closer together again. Also on the rest of the globe, among countries that are neutral to the Ukraine secretion, Russia then applies as a country that shows no interest in peace.

For Putin, it would be rational to first agree with this 30-day ceasefire, combined with certain preconditions for the upcoming negotiations. But can one expect Putin rational behavior? BBC, Steve Rosenberg’s long-time Russia correspondent,: “What does a judoka do when the ball is in his field?”

At least an obstacle to an ceasefire and the admission of negotiations seem to be eliminated at the moment: the Russian army is on the rise in the Kursk area, where the Ukrainians have kept a few hundred square kilometers since August 2024. It is quite possible that this rather sudden Ukrainian withdrawal was agreed by Russian territory behind closed doors to enable a ceasefire.

So far, Putin is silent, but in the next few days, perhaps already today, the US specialist Steve Witkoff in Moscow is expected to officially submit the offer. Trump has announced that it would make calls with Putin this week. The first step towards peace in Ukraine is – almost – done.

Incidentally, largely without our participation. In the only one there is a mention that we Europeans owe even to the Ukrainians: “The Ukrainian delegation repeated that the European partners should be involved in the peace process.”

The hope for Dschidda is justified – but up to a “fair and permanent” peace that the Ukrainians want is still a long way. There are many complex challenges: territorial questions, the problem of the future status of Ukraine, the question of which countries should come from peace force that control a ceasefire. The Ukraine, as brutally as it may sound, has now been taken to the Kandare by Trump. The success of the further negotiations now depends above all on whether the judoka in the Kremlin shows interest in relaxation with the West – or wants to fight further.