Coalition crisis meeting: Söder’s Bayern coalition because of the Berlin debt plan?

The wrestling for the planned billion dollar debt package from the Union and SPD for the Bundeswehr and infrastructure in Bavaria goes into the all-important phase: On Monday afternoon, the coalition committee of CSU and free voters will meet in the Federal Council on the voting behavior of Bavaria. Nobody has officially confirmed the appointment so far, because the explosiveness behind the crisis meeting is quite remarkable.

So that the debt package can pass the Federal Council on Friday, the votes of the Free State could be decisive. But CSU and free voters have to agree – but there had been massive reservations from the free voters. As a result, not only billions for the Bundeswehr and the renovation of the dilapidated infrastructure are in danger. The laboriously found base of a new black and red government also depends on the silk thread. In the CSU there are therefore even mind games behind the scenes whether the Bayern coalition is over. An overview:

Why is the position of Bavaria so important?

For the package negotiated by the Union, SPD and the Greens and the associated loosening of the debt brake, the Basic Law must be changed. This requires not only a two -thirds majority in the Bundestag on Tuesday, but also in the Federal Council. 46 out of 69 votes are necessary. However, the state governments provided exclusively by the CDU, SPD or Greens only have 41 votes. The six Bavarian votes could therefore be decisive in the end – if not other countries with a government participation from FDP, left or BSW, which is even more uncertain in most cases.

Why the coalition committee?

The CSU has negotiated the package in Berlin, so it is for it. The free voters have so far refused their blessing. In order for Bavaria to agree in the Federal Council, however, the coalition must agree – otherwise the Free State would have to contain, which would come to a rejection. That is why the CSU wants to in the coalition committee, in which the top of both parties and their parliamentary groups are represented, now try to move the free voters to a yes.

How did the free voters position themselves?

Free voter boss Hubert Aiwanger left his party’s approval after a meeting of the FW parliamentary group on Wednesday. “We cannot agree to the fact that this paper is currently available from the black and red future coalition because we see more danger as an opportunity for the stability of our country,” he had commented on the Berlin intermediate score on Wednesday. In addition, the free voters refer to their coalition agreement with the CSU – there are categorically excluded such debt plans. The package – at least the previously known negotiation status – was also controversial among local politicians of the free voters.

However: Aiwanger had also explained that the last word had not yet been spoken. The CSU therefore ultimately relies on a yes Aiwangers. Especially since there were still changes to the package in the meantime. However, it is open whether the free voters are already committed on Monday, or whether they want to wait for their next parliamentary group meeting on Wednesday.

Is it already foreseeable how the free voters choose?

No. On the one hand, there are clear demands from their ranks, such as the FW youth, to strictly reject new debts. Others argue that one could hardly allow themselves to say no to strengthen the Bundeswehr – after all, the free voters wanted that. In addition, the municipalities are urgently dependent on money for infrastructure – and other expenses.

Is the Bayern coalition in danger?

This has been discussed and played through in the Free State for a few days now: What if the free voters stay with their no? Some consider it quite conceivable that Markus Söder then has no choice but to burst the coalition. Especially if other countries in the Federal Council could not agree in the end and that Bavaria’s abstention would mean that there was no majority. Would Söder burst the coalition rather than the Berlin package? Possible. The ranks of the CSU had recently emphasized that the parties in the middle had to be together. The keyword “state political responsibility” has been on everyone’s lips for days.

In addition, the coalition of CSU and free voters has basically been stressed for years. Both sides mistrust each other and the pitch – unlike in the first legislature of the two as government partners – had also intensified. The relationship between Söder and Aiwanger has also been extremely burdened for years.

Would Söder CSU have coalition alternatives in Bavaria?

Yes, even several, with one (with the AfD) according to Söder basically and one (with the green ones) in fact due to ideological differences. However, a coalition with the SPD would be conceivable. There are also advances for them: “The Bavarian SPD is ready to enter the state government,” said President of the Landtag President Markus Rinderspacher to the “Tagesspiegel”: “With the SPD, a clear JA in the Federal Council would guarantee the infrastructure and defense package.”

However, a CSU SPD coalition in the state parliament would only have the very scarce majority of one vote-so it would be a risk for Söder when rule. From the ranks of the free voters, it is said that such mind games are “ridiculous” and in practice, since all members of the CSU and the SPD should always be present with each coordination to ensure the majority. But the fact is that there have already been so narrow majorities in other countries that have also survived an election period.

It is therefore mostly considered more likely that the free voters still support the Berlin package, if only to grind their teeth. Some in the party even expect that they can also get something tangible during the negotiations – for example, it was challenged to regulate the state financial equalization. CDU boss Friedrich Merz also assumes that Bavaria will agree to the Federal Council. “I am very confident that everyone involved knows their responsibility in Bavaria,” he told the “Bild am Sonntag”.

Composition of the Federal Council